Sub-epidemic model forecasts for COVID-19 pandemic spread in the USA and European hotspots, February-May 2020

Gerardo Chowell, Richard Rothenberg, Kimberlyn Roosa, Amna Tariq, James M. Hyman, Ruiyan Luo

Type: Preprint

Publication Date: 2020-07-04

Citations: 3

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.03.20146159

View Publication

Locations

medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) - View

Similar Works

Action	Title	Year	Authors
+	Sub-epidemic Model Forecasts During the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the USA and European Hotspots	2022	Gerardo Chowell Richard Rothenberg Kimberlyn Roosa Amna Tariq James M. Hyman Ruiyan Luo
+	The challenges of modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19	2020	Andrea L. Bertozzi Elisa Marques Franco George Mohler Martin B. Short Daniel Sledge
+	The challenges of modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19	2020	Andrea L. Bertozzi Elisa Marques Franco George Mohler Martin B. Short Daniel Sledge
+	Epidemic Models for COVID-19 during the First Wave from February to May 2020: a Methodological Review	2021	Marie Garin Myrto Limnios Alice Nicolaï Ioannis Bargiotas Olivier Boulant Stephen E. Chick Amir Dib Theodoros Evgeniou Mathilde Fekom Argyris Kalogeratos
+ PDF Chat	SpatialWavePredict: a tutorial-based primer and toolbox for forecasting growth trajectories using the ensemble spatial wave sub-epidemic modeling framework	2024	Gerardo Chowell Amna Tariq Sushma Dahal Amanda Bleichrodt Ruiyan Luo James M. Hyman
+	A logistic model and predictions for the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic	2020	Baolian Cheng Yiming Wang
+	Phenomenological and mechanistic models for predicting early transmission data of COVID-19	2021	Takeshi Miyama Sung-mok Jung Katsuma Hayashi Asami Anzai Ryo Kinoshita T. Kobayashi Natalie M. Linton Ayako Suzuki Yichi Yang Baoyin Yuan
+ PDF Chat	An ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework for short-term forecasting epidemic trajectories: Application to the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA	2022	Gerardo Chowell Sushma Dahal Amna Tariq Kimberlyn Roosa James M. Hyman Ruiyan Luo
+	Global predictions of short- to medium-term COVID-19 transmission trends : a retrospective assessment	2021	Sangeeta Bhatia Kris V. Parag Jack Wardle Natsuko Imai Sabine van Elsland Britta Lassmann Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg Elita Jauneikaite H. Juliette T. Unwin Steven Riley
+	A data-driven epidemiological model to explain the Covid-19 pandemic in multiple countries and help in choosing mitigation strategies	2020	Maria J. Beira Anant Kumar Lília Perfeito Joana Gonçalves-Sá Pedro J. Sebastião
+ PDF Chat	An overview of COVID-19 global epidemiology and discussion of potential drivers of variable global pandemic impacts	2023	Polly Ashmore Emma Sherwood
+	Global Empirical Forecasts of COVID-19 Trajectories Under Limited Information on the Efficacy of Intervention Strategies	2020	Kai Lin Christopher Joye Nathan Giang Adam Richardson
+	Forecasting the Trajectory of the COVID-19 Pandemic under Plausible Variant and Intervention Scenarios: A Global Modelling Study	2022	Robert C. Reiner James K. Collins COVID- Forecasting Team Christopher J L Murray
+ PDF Chat	Consistent pattern of epidemic slowing across many geographies led to longer, flatter initial waves of the COVID-19 pandemic	2022	M. Ben-Nun Pete Riley James Turtle Steven Riley
+	Predicting the propagation of COVID-19 at an international scale: extension of an SIR model	2021	Marc Lavielle Matthieu Faron Jérémie H. Lefèvre Jean–David Zeitoun
+	COVIDHunter: COVID-19 pandemic wave prediction and mitigation via seasonality-aware modeling	2022	Mohammed Alser Jeremie S. Kim Nour Almadhoun Alserr Stefan W. Tell Onur Mutlu
+ PDF Chat	Modeling Global COVID-19 Dissemination Data After the Emergence of Omicron Variant Using Multipronged Approaches	2022	Subhash Kumar Yadav Vinit Kumar Yusuf Akhter
+ PDF Chat	Updated Model for the USA Summer 2021 CoVID-19 Resurgence	2021	Genghmun Eng
+ PDF Chat	Modeling the Covid-19 Pandemic Response of the US States	2020	Georgios Neofotistos Efthimios Kaxiras
+ PDF Chat	COVIDHunter: COVID-19 Pandemic Wave Prediction and Mitigation via Seasonality Aware Modeling	2022	Mohammed Alser Jeremie S. Kim Nour Almadhoun Alserr Stefan W. Tell Onur Mutlu

Works That Cite This (3)

Action	Title	Year	Authors
+ PDF Chat	The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission across 130 countries and territories	2021	Yang Liu Christian Morgenstern James Kelly Rachel Lowe Mark Jit
+ PDF Chat	Evaluating epidemic forecasts in an interval format	2021	Johannes Bracher Evan L Ray Tilmann Gneiting Nicholas G Reich
+	Identification of COVID-19 Waves: Considerations for Research and Policy	2021	Andrés Ayala Pablo Villalobos Dintrans Felipe Elorrieta Claudio Castillo Claudio Vargas Matilde Maddaleno

Works Cited by This (9)

Action	Title	Year	Authors
+	Richards model revisited: Validation by and application to infection dynamics	2012	Xiangsheng Wang Jian Wu Yong Yang
+ PDF Chat	The geographical and temporal evolution of sexually transmitted disease epidemics	2002	G P Garnett
+	The intrinsic transmission dynamics of tuberculosis epidemics	1995	Sally Blower Angela R. McLean Travis C. Porco Peter M. Small Philip C. Hopewell Melissa Sanchez Andrew R. Moss
+ PDF Chat	Real-time Forecast of Multiphase Outbreak	2006	Ying‐Hen Hsieh Yuan-Sen Cheng
+	Transmission dynamics of the great influenza pandemic of 1918 in Geneva, Switzerland: Assessing the effects of hypothetical interventions	2006	Gerardo Chowell Catherine E. Ammon Nicolas Hengartner James M. Hyman
+	Fitting dynamic models to epidemic outbreaks with quantified uncertainty: A primer for parameter uncertainty, identifiability, and forecasts	2017	Gerardo Chowell
+ PDF Chat	Assessing the performance of real-time epidemic forecasts: A case study of Ebola in the Western Area region of Sierra Leone, 2014-15	2019	Sebastian Funk Anton Camacho Adam J. Kucharski Rachel Lowe Rosalind M. Eggo W. John Edmunds
+ PDF Chat	A novel sub-epidemic modeling framework for short-term forecasting epidemic waves	2019	Gerardo Chowell Amna Tariq James M. Hyman
+ PDF Chat	Caution Warranted: Using the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Model for Predicting the Course of the COVID-19 Pandemic	2020	Nicholas P. Jewell Joseph A. Lewnard Britta L. Jewell