Emily Howerton

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All published works
Action Title Year Authors
+ Scenario design for infectious disease projections: Integrating concepts from decision analysis and experimental design 2024 Michael C. Runge
Katriona Shea
Emily Howerton
Katie Yan
Harry Hochheiser
Erik Rosenstrom
William J. M. Probert
Rebecca K. Borchering
Madhav Marathe
Bryan Lewis
+ PDF Chat Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub 2024 Sung-mok Jung
Sara L. Loo
Emily Howerton
Lucie Contamin
Claire P. Smith
Erica C. Carcelén
Katie Yan
Samantha J. Bents
John Levander
Jeremy U. Espino
+ When do we need multiple infectious disease models? Agreement between projection rank and magnitude in a multi-model setting 2024 La Keisha Wade-Malone
Emily Howerton
William J. M. Probert
Michael C. Runge
Cécile Viboud
Katriona Shea
+ Ensemble<mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" altimg="si10.svg" display="inline" id="d1e331"><mml:msup><mml:mrow/><mml:mrow><mml:mn>2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math>: Scenarios ensembling for communication and performance analysis 2024 Clara Bay
Guillaume St-Onge
Jessica T. Davis
Matteo Chinazzi
Emily Howerton
Justin Lessler
Michael C. Runge
Katriona Shea
Shaun Truelove
Cécile Viboud
+ PDF Chat People and Data: solving planetary challenges together 2024 Chiara Vanalli
Emily Howerton
Fuhan Yang
Thu Nguyen-Anh Tran
Weiming Hu
+ PDF Chat The US COVID-19 and Influenza Scenario Modeling Hubs: Delivering long-term projections to guide policy 2024 Loo S.L.
Emily Howerton
Lucie Contamin
Smith C.P.
Borchering R.K.
Mullany L.C.
Samantha J. Bents
Erica C. Carcelén
Jung S.-M.
Tiffany L. Bogich
+ PDF Chat Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub 2024 Jung S.-M.
Loo S.L.
Emily Howerton
Lucie Contamin
Smith C.P.
Carcelén E.C
Yan K
Bents S.J
John Levander
Jeremy U. Espino
+ The US COVID-19 and Influenza Scenario Modeling Hubs: Delivering long-term projections to guide policy 2023 Sara L. Loo
Emily Howerton
Lucie Contamin
Claire P. Smith
Rebecca K. Borchering
Luke C. Mullany
Samantha J. Bents
Erica Carcelen
Sung-mok Jung
Tiffany L. Bogich
+ PDF Chat Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty 2023 Emily Howerton
Lucie Contamin
Luke C. Mullany
Michelle Qin
Nicholas G Reich
Samantha J. Bents
Rebecca K. Borchering
Sung-mok Jung
Sara L. Loo
Claire P. Smith
+ PDF Chat Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: lessons from the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub 2023 Sung-mok Jung
Sara L. Loo
Emily Howerton
Lucie Contamin
Claire P. Smith
Erica C. Carcelén
Katie Yan
Samantha Bents
John Levander
Jeremy U. Espino
+ PDF Chat The effect of governance structures on optimal control of two-patch epidemic models 2023 Emily Howerton
Kyle Dahlin
Christina J. Edholm
Lindsey Fox
Margaret Reynolds
Brandon Hollingsworth
George Lytle
Melody Walker
Julie C. Blackwood
Suzanne Lenhart
+ PDF Chat Scenario Design for Infectious Disease Projections: Integrating Concepts from Decision Analysis and Experimental Design 2023 Michael C. Runge
Katriona Shea
Emily Howerton
Katie Yan
Harry Hochheiser
Erik Rosenstrom
William J. M. Probert
Rebecca K. Borchering
Madhav Marathe
Bryan Lewis
+ PDF Chat Benefits of near-universal vaccination and treatment access to manage COVID-19 burden in the United States 2023 Fuhan Yang
Thu Nguyen-Anh Tran
Emily Howerton
Maciej F. Boni
Joseph L. Servadio
+ PDF Chat Informing pandemic response in the face of uncertainty.<i>An evaluation of the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub</i> 2023 Emily Howerton
Lucie Contamin
Luke C. Mullany
Michelle Qin
Nicholas G Reich
Samantha Bents
Rebecca K. Borchering
Sung-mok Jung
Sara L. Loo
Claire P. Smith
+ Multiple models for outbreak decision support in the face of uncertainty 2023 Katriona Shea
Rebecca K. Borchering
William J. M. Probert
Emily Howerton
Tiffany L. Bogich
Shou‐Li Li
Willem G. van Panhuis
Cécile Viboud
Ricardo Águas
Artur Belov
+ PDF Chat Benefits of near-universal vaccination and treatment access to manage COVID-19 burden in the United States 2023 Fuhan Yang
Thu Nguyen-Anh Tran
Emily Howerton
Maciej F. Boni
Joseph L. Servadio
+ PDF Chat Optimal spatial evaluation of a pro rata vaccine distribution rule for COVID-19 2023 F. Castonguay
Julie C. Blackwood
Emily Howerton
Katriona Shea
Charles Sims
James N. Sanchirico
+ Context-dependent representation of within- and between-model uncertainty: aggregating probabilistic predictions in infectious disease epidemiology 2023 Emily Howerton
Michael C. Runge
Tiffany L. Bogich
Rebecca K. Borchering
Hidetoshi Inamine
Justin Lessler
Luke C. Mullany
William J. M. Probert
Claire P. Smith
Shaun Truelove
+ PDF Chat Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty 2023 Emily Howerton
Lucie Contamin
Mullany L.C.
Qin Mao
Reich N.G.
Samantha Bents
Borchering R.K.
Jung S.-M.
Loo S.L.
Smith C.P.
+ Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5–11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021–March 2022: a multi-model study 2022 Rebecca K. Borchering
Luke C. Mullany
Emily Howerton
Matteo Chinazzi
Claire P. Smith
Michelle Qin
Nicholas G Reich
Lucie Contamin
John Levander
Jessica Kerr
+ Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July—December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination 2022 Shaun Truelove
Claire P. Smith
Michelle Qin
Luke C. Mullany
Rebecca K. Borchering
Justin Lessler
Katriona Shea
Emily Howerton
Lucie Contamin
John Levander
+ Author response: Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July—December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination 2022 Shaun Truelove
Claire P. Smith
Michelle Qin
Luke C. Mullany
Rebecca K. Borchering
Justin Lessler
Katriona Shea
Emily Howerton
Lucie Contamin
John Levander
+ Synergistic interventions to control COVID-19: Mass testing and isolation mitigates reliance on distancing 2021 Emily Howerton
Matthew J. Ferrari
Ottar N. Bjørnstad
Tiffany L. Bogich
Rebecca K. Borchering
Chris Jewell
James D. Nichols
William J. M. Probert
Michael C. Runge
Michael J. Tildesley
+ PDF Chat Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July—December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination 2021 Shaun Truelove
Claire P. Smith
Michelle Qin
Luke C. Mullany
Rebecca K. Borchering
Justin Lessler
Katriona Shea
Emily Howerton
Lucie Contamin
John Levander
+ PDF Chat Strategic testing approaches for targeted disease monitoring can be used to inform pandemic decision-making 2021 James D. Nichols
Tiffany L. Bogich
Emily Howerton
Ottar N. Bjørnstad
Rebecca K. Borchering
Matthew J. Ferrari
Murali Haran
Chris Jewell
Kim M. Pepin
William J. M. Probert
+ PDF Chat Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021 2021 Rebecca K. Borchering
Cécile Viboud
Emily Howerton
Claire P. Smith
Shaun Truelove
Michael C. Runge
Nicholas G Reich
Lucie Contamin
John Levander
Jessica Salerno
+ Spatial Allocation of Scarce COVID-19 Vaccines<sup>*†‡</sup> 2020 F. Castonguay
Julie C. Blackwood
Emily Howerton
Katriona Shea
Charles Sims
James N. Sanchirico
+ COVID-19 reopening strategies at the county level in the face of uncertainty: Multiple Models for Outbreak Decision Support 2020 Katriona Shea
Rebecca K. Borchering
William J. M. Probert
Emily Howerton
Tiffany L. Bogich
Shou‐Li Li
Willem G. van Panhuis
Cécile Viboud
Ricardo Águas
Artur Belov
Common Coauthors
Commonly Cited References
Action Title Year Authors # of times referenced
+ PDF Chat Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021 2021 Rebecca K. Borchering
Cécile Viboud
Emily Howerton
Claire P. Smith
Shaun Truelove
Michael C. Runge
Nicholas G Reich
Lucie Contamin
John Levander
Jessica Salerno
14
+ Collaborative Hubs: Making the Most of Predictive Epidemic Modeling 2022 Nicholas G Reich
Justin Lessler
Sebastian Funk
Cécile Viboud
Alessandro Vespignani
Ryan J. Tibshirani
Katriona Shea
Melanie Schienle
Michael C. Runge
Roni Rosenfeld
11
+ Context-dependent representation of within- and between-model uncertainty: aggregating probabilistic predictions in infectious disease epidemiology 2023 Emily Howerton
Michael C. Runge
Tiffany L. Bogich
Rebecca K. Borchering
Hidetoshi Inamine
Justin Lessler
Luke C. Mullany
William J. M. Probert
Claire P. Smith
Shaun Truelove
11
+ PDF Chat Harnessing multiple models for outbreak management 2020 Katriona Shea
Michael C. Runge
David J. Pannell
William J. M. Probert
Shou‐Li Li
Michael J. Tildesley
Matthew J. Ferrari
9
+ PDF Chat Improving Pandemic Response: Employing Mathematical Modeling to Confront Coronavirus Disease 2019 2021 Matthew Biggerstaff
Rachel B. Slayton
Michael A. Johansson
Jay C. Butler
9
+ Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July—December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination 2022 Shaun Truelove
Claire P. Smith
Michelle Qin
Luke C. Mullany
Rebecca K. Borchering
Justin Lessler
Katriona Shea
Emily Howerton
Lucie Contamin
John Levander
9
+ Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States 2022 Estee Y. Cramer
Evan L Ray
Velma K. Lopez
Johannes Bracher
Andrea Brennen
Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira
Aaron Gerding
Tilmann Gneiting
Katie House
Yuxin Huang
8
+ PDF Chat An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics 2019 Michael A. Johansson
Karyn M. Apfeldorf
Scott Dobson
Jason Devita
Anna L. Buczak
Benjamin Baugher
Linda Moniz
Thomas Bagley
Steven M. Babin
Erhan Guven
8
+ The RAPIDD ebola forecasting challenge: Synthesis and lessons learnt 2017 Cécile Viboud
Kaiyuan Sun
Robert Gaffey
Marco Ajelli
Laura Fumanelli
Stefano Merler
Qian Zhang
Gerardo Chowell
Lone Simonsen
Alessandro Vespignani
8
+ PDF Chat Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty 2023 Emily Howerton
Lucie Contamin
Luke C. Mullany
Michelle Qin
Nicholas G Reich
Samantha J. Bents
Rebecca K. Borchering
Sung-mok Jung
Sara L. Loo
Claire P. Smith
6
+ Multiple models for outbreak decision support in the face of uncertainty 2023 Katriona Shea
Rebecca K. Borchering
William J. M. Probert
Emily Howerton
Tiffany L. Bogich
Shou‐Li Li
Willem G. van Panhuis
Cécile Viboud
Ricardo Águas
Artur Belov
6
+ PDF Chat Accuracy of real-time multi-model ensemble forecasts for seasonal influenza in the U.S. 2019 Nicholas G Reich
Craig McGowan
Teresa K. Yamana
Abhinav Tushar
Evan L Ray
Dave Osthus
Sasikiran Kandula
Logan Brooks
Willow Crawford-Crudell
Graham Casey Gibson
6
+ Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5–11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021–March 2022: a multi-model study 2022 Rebecca K. Borchering
Luke C. Mullany
Emily Howerton
Matteo Chinazzi
Claire P. Smith
Michelle Qin
Nicholas G Reich
Lucie Contamin
John Levander
Jessica Kerr
5
+ PDF Chat Adaptive Management and the Value of Information: Learning Via Intervention in Epidemiology 2014 Katriona Shea
Michael J. Tildesley
Michael C. Runge
Christopher Fonnesbeck
Matthew J. Ferrari
5
+ PDF Chat Evaluating epidemic forecasts in an interval format 2021 Johannes Bracher
Evan L Ray
Tilmann Gneiting
Nicholas G Reich
5
+ PDF Chat The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset 2022 Estee Y. Cramer
Yuxin Huang
Yijin Wang
Evan L Ray
Matthew Cornell
Johannes Bracher
Andrea Brennen
Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira
Aaron Gerding
Katie House
4
+ Multimodeling approach to evaluating the efficacy of layering pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical interventions for influenza pandemics 2023 Pragati Prasad
Molly Steele
Carrie Reed
Lauren Ancel Meyers
Zhanwei Du
Remy Pasco
Jorge A. Alfaro-Murillo
Bryan Lewis
Srinivasan Venkatramanan
James Schlitt
4
+ The US COVID-19 and Influenza Scenario Modeling Hubs: Delivering long-term projections to guide policy 2023 Sara L. Loo
Emily Howerton
Lucie Contamin
Claire P. Smith
Rebecca K. Borchering
Luke C. Mullany
Samantha J. Bents
Erica Carcelen
Sung-mok Jung
Tiffany L. Bogich
4
+ PDF Chat A collaborative multiyear, multimodel assessment of seasonal influenza forecasting in the United States 2019 Nicholas G Reich
Logan Brooks
Spencer J. Fox
Sasikiran Kandula
Craig McGowan
Evan Moore
Dave Osthus
Evan L Ray
Abhinav Tushar
Teresa K. Yamana
4
+ PDF Chat Mathematical models to guide pandemic response 2020 C. Jessica E. Metcalf
Dylan H. Morris
Sang Woo Park
3
+ PDF Chat Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics 2020 Nicholas G. Davies
Petra Klepac
Yang Liu
Kiesha Prem
Mark Jit
Carl A. B. Pearson
Billy J. Quilty
Adam J. Kucharski
Hamish Gibbs
Samuel Clifford
3
+ PDF Chat On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio R 0 in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations 1990 Odo Diekmann
Hans Heesterbeek
J.A.J. Metz
3
+ PDF Chat Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe 2020 Seth Flaxman
Swapnil Mishra
Axel Gandy
H. Juliette T. Unwin
Thomas A. Mellan
Helen Coupland
Charles Whittaker
Harrison Zhu
Tresnia Berah
Jeffrey W. Eaton
3
+ PDF Chat Informing pandemic response in the face of uncertainty.<i>An evaluation of the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub</i> 2023 Emily Howerton
Lucie Contamin
Luke C. Mullany
Michelle Qin
Nicholas G Reich
Samantha Bents
Rebecca K. Borchering
Sung-mok Jung
Sara L. Loo
Claire P. Smith
3
+ PDF Chat An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China 2020 Huaiyu Tian
Youngjoon Hong
Yidan Li
Chieh‐Hsi Wu
Бин Чэн
Moritz U. G. Kraemer
Bingying Li
Jun Cai
Bo Xu
Qiqi Yang
3
+ Comparing trained and untrained probabilistic ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the United States 2022 Evan L Ray
Logan Brooks
Jacob Bien
Matthew Biggerstaff
Nikos I Bosse
Johannes Bracher
Estee Y. Cramer
Sebastian Funk
Aaron Gerding
Michael A. Johansson
3
+ PDF Chat Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts 2020 Joel Hellewell
Sam Abbott
Amy Gimma
Nikos I Bosse
Christopher I Jarvis
Timothy Russell
James D. Munday
Adam J. Kucharski
W. John Edmunds
Sebastian Funk
3
+ PDF Chat Vaccine optimization for COVID-19: Who to vaccinate first? 2021 Laura Matrajt
Julia Eaton
Tiffany Leung
Elizabeth R. Brown
3
+ PDF Chat Rational policymaking during a pandemic 2021 Loïc Berger
Nicolas Berger
Valentina Bosetti
Itzhak Gilboa
Lars Peter Hansen
Christopher I Jarvis
Mássimo Marinacci
Richard Smith
3
+ Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia 2020 Qun Li
Xuhua Guan
Peng Wu
Xiaoye Wang
Lei Zhou
Yeqing Tong
Ruiqi Ren
Kathy Leung
Eric H. Y. Lau
Jessica Y. Wong
3
+ PDF Chat Immunological characteristics govern the transition of COVID-19 to endemicity 2021 Jennie S. Lavine
Ottar N. Bjørnstad
Rustom Antia
3
+ PDF Chat Essential information: Uncertainty and optimal control of Ebola outbreaks 2017 Shou‐Li Li
Ottar N. Bjørnstad
Matthew J. Ferrari
Riley O. Mummah
Michael C. Runge
Christopher Fonnesbeck
Michael J. Tildesley
William J. M. Probert
Katriona Shea
3
+ Estimating the health impact of vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2030: a modelling study 2021 Xiang Li
Christinah Mukandavire
Zulma M. Cucunubá
Susy Echeverría-Londoño
Kaja Abbas
Hannah E. Clapham
Mark Jit
Hope L. Johnson
Timos Papadopoulos
Emilia Vynnycky
3
+ PDF Chat Real-time decision-making during emergency disease outbreaks 2018 William J. M. Probert
Chris Jewell
Marleen Werkman
Christopher Fonnesbeck
Yoshitaka Goto
Michael C. Runge
Satoshi Sekiguchi
Katriona Shea
Matt J. Keeling
Matthew J. Ferrari
3
+ Increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection associated with emergence of Omicron in South Africa 2022 Juliet R. C. Pulliam
Cari van Schalkwyk
Nevashan Govender
Anne von Gottberg
Cheryl Cohen
Michelle J. Groome
Jonathan Dushoff
Koleka Mlisana
Harry Moultrie
3
+ When do we need multiple infectious disease models? Agreement between projection rank and magnitude in a multi-model setting 2024 La Keisha Wade-Malone
Emily Howerton
William J. M. Probert
Michael C. Runge
Cécile Viboud
Katriona Shea
3
+ The introduction of population migration to SEIAR for COVID-19 epidemic modeling with an efficient intervention strategy 2020 Chen Min
Miao Li
Yixue Hao
Zhongchun Liu
Long Hu
Lin Wang
2
+ Who Invented the Delta Method? 2012 Jay M. Ver Hoef
2
+ PDF Chat Uncertainty and the management of epidemics 2020 Katriona Shea
Ottar N. Bjørnstad
Martin Krzywinski
Naomi Altman
2
+ PDF Chat The Final Size of an Epidemic and Its Relation to the Basic Reproduction Number 2011 Viggo Andreasen
2
+ PDF Chat The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries 2020 Patrick Walker
Charles Whittaker
Oliver J. Watson
Marc Baguelin
Peter Winskill
Arran Hamlet
Bimandra A. Djafaara
Zulma M. Cucunubá
Daniela Olivera Mesa
William D. Green
2
+ PDF Chat Timing of State and Territorial COVID-19 Stay-at-Home Orders and Changes in Population Movement — United States, March 1–May 31, 2020 2020 Amanda Moreland
Christine Herlihy
Michael A. Tynan
Gregory Sunshine
Russell F. McCord
Charity Hilton
Jason Poovey
Angela Werner
Chris Jones
Erika B. Fulmer
2
+ PDF Chat The SEIRS model for infectious disease dynamics 2020 Ottar N. Bjørnstad
Katriona Shea
Martin Krzywinski
Naomi Altman
2
+ A unified framework for the numerical solution of optimal control problems using pseudospectral methods 2010 Divya Garg
Michael Patterson
William W. Hager
Anil V. Rao
David A. Benson
Geoffrey T. Huntington
2
+ PDF Chat Dose‐Optimal Vaccine Allocation over Multiple Populations 2017 Lotty Evertje Duijzer
Willem van Jaarsveld
Jacco Wallinga
Rommert Dekker
2
+ Estimating the future number of cases in the Ebola epidemic--Liberia and Sierra Leone, 2014-2015. 2014 Meltzer Mi
Atkins Cy
Scott Santibañez
Barbara Knust
Petersen Bw
Elizabeth Ervin
Nichol St
Damon Ik
Washington Ml
2
+ PDF Chat Temporal estimates of case-fatality rate for COVID-19 outbreaks in Canada and the United States 2020 Elaheh Abdollahi
David Champredon
Joanne M. Langley
Alison P. Galvani
Seyed M. Moghadas
2
+ A modelling framework to assess the likely effectiveness of facemasks in combination with ‘lock-down’ in managing the COVID-19 pandemic 2020 Richard O. J. H. Stutt
Renata Retkutė
Michael S.A. Bradley
Christopher A. Gilligan
John Colvin
2
+ PDF Chat Seasonal coronavirus protective immunity is short-lasting 2020 Arthur W. D. Edridge
Joanna Kaczorowska
Alexis C. R. Hoste
Margreet Bakker
Michelle Klein
Katherine Loens
Maarten F. Jebbink
Amy Matser
Cormac M. Kinsella
Paloma Rueda
2
+ PDF Chat Containing Pandemic Influenza at the Source 2005 Ira M. Longini
Azhar Nizam
Shufu Xu
Kumnuan Ungchusak
Wanna Hanshaoworakul
Derek A. T. Cummings
M. Elizabeth Halloran
2