Can AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan tropical
cyclones?
Can AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan tropical
cyclones?
Predicting gray swan weather extremes, which are possible but so rare that they are absent from the training dataset, is a major concern for AI weather/climate models. An important open question is whether AI models can extrapolate from weaker weather events present in the training set to stronger, unseen weather …