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A model of behavioural response to risk accurately predicts the statistical distribution of COVID-19 infection and reproduction numbers

A model of behavioural response to risk accurately predicts the statistical distribution of COVID-19 infection and reproduction numbers

Abstract One clear aspect of behaviour in the COVID-19 pandemic has been peopleā€™s focus on, and response to, reported or observed infection numbers in their community. We describe a simple model of infectious disease spread in a pandemic situation where peopleā€™s behaviour is influenced by the current risk of infection ā€¦