The Bayesian Sampler: Generic Bayesian Inference Causes Incoherence in Human Probability Judgments
The Bayesian Sampler: Generic Bayesian Inference Causes Incoherence in Human Probability Judgments
Human probability judgments are systematically biased, in apparent tension with Bayesian models of cognition. But perhaps the brain does not represent probabilities explicitly, but approximates probabilistic calculations through a process of sampling, as used in computational probabilistic models in statistics. Naïve probability estimates can be obtained by calculating the relative …