Learning Forecasts of Rare Stratospheric Transitions from Short Simulations
Learning Forecasts of Rare Stratospheric Transitions from Short Simulations
Abstract Rare events arising in nonlinear atmospheric dynamics remain hard to predict and attribute. We address the problem of forecasting rare events in a prototypical example, sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Approximately once every other winter, the boreal stratospheric polar vortex rapidly breaks down, shifting midlatitude surface weather patterns for months. …