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What the reproductive number <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline" id="d1e629" altimg="si18.svg"><mml:msub><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="script" class="EuScript">R</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mn>0</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:math> can and cannot tell us about COVID-19 dynamics