The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Looking back (more than) 25 years and projecting forward 25 years
The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Looking back (more than) 25 years and projecting forward 25 years
This paper has been written to mark 25 years of operational medium-range ensemble forecasting. The origins of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System are outlined, including the development of the precursor real-time Met Office monthly ensemble forecast system. In particular, the reasons for the development of singular vectors and stochastic physics …