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Assurance for clinical trial design with normally distributed outcomes: Eliciting uncertainty about variances

Assurance for clinical trial design with normally distributed outcomes: Eliciting uncertainty about variances

Summary The assurance method is growing in popularity in clinical trial planning. The method involves eliciting a prior distribution for the treatment effect, and then calculating the probability that a proposed trial will produce a “successful” outcome. For normally distributed observations, uncertainty about the variance of the normal distribution also …