Probability-Weighted Ensembles of U.S. County-Level Climate Projections for Climate Risk Analysis
Probability-Weighted Ensembles of U.S. County-Level Climate Projections for Climate Risk Analysis
Abstract Quantitative assessment of climate change risk requires a method for constructing probabilistic time series of changes in physical climate parameters. Here, two such methods, surrogate/model mixed ensemble (SMME) and Monte Carlo pattern/residual (MCPR), are developed and then are applied to construct joint probability density functions (PDFs) of temperature and …