A New Multinomial Accuracy Measure for Polling Bias
A New Multinomial Accuracy Measure for Polling Bias
In this article, we propose a polling accuracy measure for multi-party elections based on a generalization of Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy's two-party predictive accuracy index. Treating polls as random samples of a voting population, we first estimate an intercept only multinomial logit model to provide proportionate odds measures of each …