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A likelihood‐based method for real‐time estimation of the serial interval and reproductive number of an epidemic

A likelihood‐based method for real‐time estimation of the serial interval and reproductive number of an epidemic

Abstract We present a method for the simultaneous estimation of the basic reproductive number, R 0 , and the serial interval for infectious disease epidemics, using readily available surveillance data. These estimates can be obtained in real time to inform an appropriate public health response to the outbreak. We show …