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Size of outbreaks near the epidemic threshold

Size of outbreaks near the epidemic threshold

The spread of infectious diseases near the epidemic threshold is investigated. Scaling laws for the size and the duration of outbreaks originating from a single infected individual in a large susceptible population are obtained. The maximal size of an outbreak ${n}_{\ensuremath{\ast}}$ scales as ${N}^{2∕3}$ with $N$ the population size. This …