On the predictive ability of mechanistic models for the Haitian cholera epidemic
On the predictive ability of mechanistic models for the Haitian cholera epidemic
Predictive models of epidemic cholera need to resolve at suitable aggregation levels spatial data pertaining to local communities, epidemiological records, hydrologic drivers, waterways, patterns of human mobility and proxies of exposure rates. We address the above issue in a formal model comparison framework and provide a quantitative assessment of the …