Estimating and Projecting Trends in HIV/AIDS Generalized Epidemics Using Incremental Mixture Importance Sampling
Estimating and Projecting Trends in HIV/AIDS Generalized Epidemics Using Incremental Mixture Importance Sampling
The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has decided to use Bayesian melding as the basis for its probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence in countries with generalized epidemics. This combines a mechanistic epidemiological model, prevalence data, and expert opinion. Initially, the posterior distribution was approximated by sampling-importance-resampling, which is …