Simulation of strategies for containing pandemic influenza

Sigrún Andradóttir, Wenchi Chiu, David Goldsman, Mi Lim Lee, Kwok‐Leung Tsui, David N. Fisman, Beate Sander, Azhar Nizam

Abstract

We use a stochastic simulation model of pandemic influenza to investigate realistic intervention strategies that can be used in reaction to developing outbreaks. The model is constructed to represent a typical mid-sized North American city. Our model predicts average illness attack rates and economic costs for various intervention scenarios, e.g., in the case when low-coverage reactive vaccination and limited antiviral use are combined with minimally disruptive social distancing strategies, including short-term closure of individual schools. We find that such combination strategies can be substantially more effective than vaccination alone from epidemiological and economic standpoints.

Locations

• CiteSeer X (The Pennsylvania State University) - View - PDF
• Proceedings of Winter Simulation Conference - View