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Prophet secretary through blind strategies

Authors

José R. Correa, Raimundo Saona, Bruno Ziliotto
Type: Article
Publication Date: 2019-01-06
Citations: 19
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5555/3310435.3310553

Abstract

In the classic prophet inequality, a problem in optimal stopping theory, samples from independent random variables (possibly differently distributed) arrive online. A gambler that knows the distributions, but cannot see the future, must decide at each point in time whether to stop and pick the current sample or to continue and lose that sample forever. The goal of the gambler is to maximize the expected value of what she picks and the performance measure is the worst case ratio between the expected value the gambler gets and what a prophet, that sees all the realizations in advance, gets. In the late seventies, Krengel and Sucheston, and Garling [16], established that this worst case ratio is a constant and that 1/2 is the best possible such constant. In the last decade the theory of prophet inequalities has resurged as an important problem due to its connections to posted price mechanisms, frequently used in online sales. A particularly interesting variant is the so-called Prophet Secretary problem, in which the only difference is that the samples arrive in a uniformly random order. For this variant several algorithms are known to achieve a constant of 1 − 1/e and very recently this barrier was slightly improved by Azar et al. [3].In this paper we derive a way of analyzing multi-threshold strategies that basically sets a nonincreasing sequence of thresholds to be applied at different times. The gambler will thus stop the first time a sample surpasses the corresponding threshold. Specifically we consider a class of very robust strategies that we call blind quantile strategies. These constitute a clever generalization of single threshold strategies and consist in fixing a function which is used to define a sequence of thresholds once the instance is revealed. Our main result shows that these strategies can achieve a constant of 0.669 in the Prophet Secretary problem, improving upon the best known result of Azar et al. [3], and even that of Beyhaghi et al. [4] that works in the case the gambler can select the order of the samples. The crux of the analysis is a very precise analysis of the underlying stopping time distribution for the gambler's strategy that is inspired by the theory of Schur convex functions. We further prove that our family of blind strategies cannot lead to a constant better than 0.675.Finally we prove that no nonadaptive algorithm for the gambler can achieve a constant better than 0.732, which also improves upon a recent result of Azar et al. [3]. Here, a nonadaptive algorithm is an algorithm whose decision to stop can depend on the index of the random variable being sampled, on the value sampled, and on the time, but not on the history that has been observed.

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Prophet Secretary Through Blind Strategies

2019-01-01
José R. Correa , Raimundo Saona , Bruno Ziliotto
In the classic prophet inequality, a problem in optimal stopping theory, samples from independent random variables (possibly differently distributed) arrive online. A gambler that knows the distributions, but cannot see … In the classic prophet inequality, a problem in optimal stopping theory, samples from independent random variables (possibly differently distributed) arrive online. A gambler that knows the distributions, but cannot see the future, must decide at each point in time whether to stop and pick the current sample or to continue and lose that sample forever. The goal of the gambler is to maximize the expected value of what she picks and the performance measure is the worst case ratio between the expected value the gambler gets and what a prophet, that sees all the realizations in advance, gets. In the late seventies, Krengel and Sucheston, and Garling [16], established that this worst case ratio is a constant and that 1/2 is the best possible such constant. In the last decade the theory of prophet inequalities has resurged as an important problem due to its connections to posted price mechanisms, frequently used in online sales. A particularly interesting variant is the so-called Prophet Secretary problem, in which the only difference is that the samples arrive in a uniformly random order. For this variant several algorithms are known to achieve a constant of 1 – 1/e and very recently this barrier was slightly improved by Azar et al. [3].In this paper we derive a way of analyzing multithreshold strategies that basically sets a nonincreasing sequence of thresholds to be applied at different times. The gambler will thus stop the first time a sample surpasses the corresponding threshold. Specifically we consider a class of very robust strategies that we call blind quantile strategies. These constitute a clever generalization of single threshold strategies and consist in fixing a function which is used to define a sequence of thresholds once the instance is revealed. Our main result shows that these strategies can achieve a constant of 0.669 in the Prophet Secretary problem, improving upon the best known result of Azar et al. [3], and even that of Beyhaghi et al. [4] that works in the case the gambler can select the order of the samples. The crux of the analysis is a very precise analysis of the underlying stopping time distribution for the gambler's strategy that is inspired by the theory of Schur convex functions. We further prove that our family of blind strategies cannot lead to a constant better than 0.675.Finally we prove that no nonadaptive algorithm for the gambler can achieve a constant better than 0.732, which also improves upon a recent result of Azar et al. [3]. Here, a nonadaptive algorithm is an algorithm whose decision to stop can depend on the index of the random variable being sampled, on the value sampled, and on the time, but not on the history that has been observed.
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Prophet Secretary Through Blind Strategies

2018-01-01
José R. Correa , Raimundo Saona , Bruno Ziliotto
In the classic prophet inequality, samples from independent random variables arrive online. A gambler that knows the distributions must decide at each point in time whether to stop and pick … In the classic prophet inequality, samples from independent random variables arrive online. A gambler that knows the distributions must decide at each point in time whether to stop and pick the current sample or to continue and lose that sample forever. The goal of the gambler is to maximize the expected value of what she picks and the performance measure is the worst case ratio between the expected value the gambler gets and what a prophet, that sees all the realizations in advance, gets. In the late seventies, Krengel and Sucheston, and Gairing (1977) established that this worst case ratio is a universal constant equal to 1/2. In the last decade prophet inequalities has resurged as an important problem due to its connections to posted price mechanisms, frequently used in online sales. A very interesting variant is the Prophet Secretary problem, in which the only difference is that the samples arrive in a uniformly random order. For this variant several algorithms achieve a constant of 1-1/e and very recently this barrier was slightly improved. This paper analyzes strategies that set a nonincreasing sequence of thresholds to be applied at different times. The gambler stops the first time a sample surpasses the corresponding threshold. Specifically we consider a class of strategies called blind quantile strategies. They consist in fixing a function which is used to define a sequence of thresholds once the instance is revealed. Our main result shows that they can achieve a constant of 0.665, improving upon the best known result of Azar et al. (2018), and on Beyhaghi et al. (2018) (order selection). Our proof analyzes precisely the underlying stopping time distribution, relying on Schur-convexity theory. We further prove that blind strategies cannot achieve better than 0.675. Finally we prove that no algorithm for the gambler can achieve better than 0.732.
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Prophet Secretary

2015-07-05
Hossein Esfandiari , MohammadTaghi Hajiaghayi , Vahid Liaghat +1 more
Optimal stopping theory is a powerful tool for analyzing scenarios such as online auctions in which we generally require optimizing an objective function over the space of stopping rules for … Optimal stopping theory is a powerful tool for analyzing scenarios such as online auctions in which we generally require optimizing an objective function over the space of stopping rules for an allocation process under uncertainty. Perhaps the most classic problems of stopping theory are the prophet inequality problem and the secretary problem. The classical prophet inequality states that by choosing the same threshold OPT/2 for every step, one can achieve the tight competitive ratio of 0.5. On the other hand, for the basic secretary problem, the optimal strategy achieves the tight competitive ratio of 1/e. In this paper, we introduce Prophet Secretary, a natural combination of the prophet inequality and the secretary problems. An example motivation for our problem is as follows. Consider a seller that has an item to sell on the market to a set of arriving customers. The seller knows the types of customers that may be interested in the item and he has a price distribution for each type: the price offered by a customer of a type is anticipated to be drawn from the corresponding distribution. However, the customers arrive in a random order. Upon the arrival of a customer, the seller makes an irrevocable decision whether to sell the item at the offered price. We address the question of finding a strategy for selling the item at a high price. We show that by using a uniform threshold one cannot break the 0.5 barrier. However, we show that i) using n distinct non-adaptive thresholds one can obtain a competitive ratio that goes to (1-1/e) as n grows; and ii) no online algorithm can achieve a competitive ratio better than 0.75. Our results improve the (asymptotic) approximation guarantee of single-item sequential posted pricing mechanisms from 0.5 to (1-1/e) when the order of agents (customers) is chosen randomly.

Prophet Secretary

2015-01-01
Hossein Esfandiari , MohammadTaghi Hajiaghayi , Vahid Liaghat +1 more
Optimal stopping theory is a powerful tool for analyzing scenarios such as online auctions in which we generally require optimizing an objective function over the space of stopping rules for … Optimal stopping theory is a powerful tool for analyzing scenarios such as online auctions in which we generally require optimizing an objective function over the space of stopping rules for an allocation process under uncertainty. Perhaps the most classic problems of stopping theory are the prophet inequality problem and the secretary problem. The classical prophet inequality states that by choosing the same threshold OPT/2 for every step, one can achieve the tight competitive ratio of 0.5. On the other hand, for the basic secretary problem, the optimal strategy achieves the tight competitive ratio of 1/e. In this paper, we introduce Prophet Secretary, a natural combination of the prophet inequality and the secretary problems. An example motivation for our problem is as follows. Consider a seller that has an item to sell on the market to a set of arriving customers. The seller knows the types of customers that may be interested in the item and he has a price distribution for each type: the price offered by a customer of a type is anticipated to be drawn from the corresponding distribution. However, the customers arrive in a random order. Upon the arrival of a customer, the seller makes an irrevocable decision whether to sell the item at the offered price. We address the question of finding a strategy for selling the item at a high price. We show that by using a uniform threshold one cannot break the 0.5 barrier. However, we show that i) using n distinct non-adaptive thresholds one can obtain a competitive ratio that goes to (1-1/e) as n grows; and ii) no online algorithm can achieve a competitive ratio better than 0.75. Our results improve the (asymptotic) approximation guarantee of single-item sequential posted pricing mechanisms from 0.5 to (1-1/e) when the order of agents (customers) is chosen randomly.

Prophet Inequalities for Cost Minimization

2022-01-01
Vasilis Livanos , Ruta Mehta
Prophet inequalities for rewards maximization are fundamental to optimal stopping theory with extensive applications to mechanism design and online optimization. We study the \emph{cost minimization} counterpart of the classical prophet … Prophet inequalities for rewards maximization are fundamental to optimal stopping theory with extensive applications to mechanism design and online optimization. We study the \emph{cost minimization} counterpart of the classical prophet inequality: a decision maker is facing a sequence of costs $X_1, X_2, \dots, X_n$ drawn from known distributions in an online manner and \emph{must} ``stop'' at some point and take the last cost seen. The goal is to compete with a ``prophet'' who can see the realizations of all $X_i$'s upfront and always select the minimum, obtaining a cost of $\mathbb{E}[\min_i X_i]$. If the $X_i$'s are not identically distributed, no strategy can achieve a bounded approximation, even for random arrival order and $n = 2$. This leads us to consider the case where the $X_i$'s are independent and identically distributed (I.I.D.). For the I.I.D. case, we show that if the distribution satisfies a mild condition, the optimal stopping strategy achieves a (distribution-dependent) constant-factor approximation to the prophet's cost. Moreover, for MHR distributions, this constant is at most $2$. All our results are tight. We also demonstrate an example distribution that does not satisfy the condition and for which the competitive ratio of any algorithm is infinite. Turning our attention to single-threshold strategies, we design a threshold that achieves a $O\left(polylog{n}\right)$-factor approximation, where the exponent in the logarithmic factor is a distribution-dependent constant, and we show a matching lower bound. Finally, we note that our results can be used to design approximately optimal posted price-style mechanisms for procurement auctions which may be of independent interest. Our techniques utilize the \emph{hazard rate} of the distribution in a novel way, allowing for a fine-grained analysis which could find further applications in prophet inequalities.

The Two-Sided Game of Googol and Sample-Based Prophet Inequalities

2019-07-13
José R. Correa , Andrés Cristi , Boris Epstein +1 more
The secretary problem or the game of Googol are classic models for online selection problems that have received significant attention in the last five decades. We consider a variant of … The secretary problem or the game of Googol are classic models for online selection problems that have received significant attention in the last five decades. We consider a variant of the problem and explore its connections to data-driven online selection. Specifically, we are given $n$ cards with arbitrary non-negative numbers written on both sides. The cards are randomly placed on $n$ consecutive positions on a table, and for each card, the visible side is also selected at random. The player sees the visible side of all cards and wants to select the card with the maximum hidden value. To this end, the player flips the first card, sees its hidden value and decides whether to pick it or drop it and continue with the next card. We study algorithms for two natural objectives. In the first one, as in the secretary problem, the player wants to maximize the probability of selecting the maximum hidden value. We show that this can be done with probability at least $0.45292$. In the second one, similar to the prophet inequality, the player maximizes the expectation of the selected hidden value. We show a guarantee of at least $0.63518$ with respect to the expected maximum hidden value. Our algorithms result from combining three basic strategies. One is to stop whenever we see a value larger than the initial $n$ visible numbers. The second one is to stop the first time the last flipped card's value is the largest of the currently $n$ visible numbers in the table. And the third one is similar to the latter but it additionally requires that the last flipped value is larger than the value on the other side of its card. We apply our results to the prophet secretary problem with unknown distributions, but with access to a single sample from each distribution. Our guarantee improves upon $1-1/e$ for this problem, which is the currently best known guarantee and only works for the i.i.d. case.

The Two-Sided Game of Googol and Sample-Based Prophet Inequalities

2019-01-01
José R. Correa , Andrés Cristi , Boris Epstein +1 more
The secretary problem or the game of Googol are classic models for online selection problems that have received significant attention in the last five decades. We consider a variant of … The secretary problem or the game of Googol are classic models for online selection problems that have received significant attention in the last five decades. We consider a variant of the problem and explore its connections to data-driven online selection. Specifically, we are given $n$ cards with arbitrary non-negative numbers written on both sides. The cards are randomly placed on $n$ consecutive positions on a table, and for each card, the visible side is also selected at random. The player sees the visible side of all cards and wants to select the card with the maximum hidden value. To this end, the player flips the first card, sees its hidden value and decides whether to pick it or drop it and continue with the next card. We study algorithms for two natural objectives. In the first one, as in the secretary problem, the player wants to maximize the probability of selecting the maximum hidden value. We show that this can be done with probability at least $0.45292$. In the second one, similar to the prophet inequality, the player maximizes the expectation of the selected hidden value. We show a guarantee of at least $0.63518$ with respect to the expected maximum hidden value. Our algorithms result from combining three basic strategies. One is to stop whenever we see a value larger than the initial $n$ visible numbers. The second one is to stop the first time the last flipped card's value is the largest of the currently $n$ visible numbers in the table. And the third one is similar to the latter but it additionally requires that the last flipped value is larger than the value on the other side of its card. We apply our results to the prophet secretary problem with unknown distributions, but with access to a single sample from each distribution. Our guarantee improves upon $1-1/e$ for this problem, which is the currently best known guarantee and only works for the i.i.d. case.

Prophets and Secretaries with Overbooking

2018-05-14
Tomer Ezra , Michal Feldman , Ilan Nehama
The prophet and secretary problems demonstrate online scenarios involving the optimal stopping theory. In a typical prophet or secretary problem, selection decisions are assumed to be immediate and irrevocable. However, … The prophet and secretary problems demonstrate online scenarios involving the optimal stopping theory. In a typical prophet or secretary problem, selection decisions are assumed to be immediate and irrevocable. However, many online settings accommodate some degree of revocability. To study such scenarios, we introduce the $\ell-out-of-k$ setting, where the decision maker can select up to $k$ elements immediately and irrevocably, but her performance is measured by the top $\ell$ elements in the selected set. Equivalently, the decision makes can hold up to $\ell$ elements at any given point in time, but can make up to $k-\ell$ returns as new elements arrive. We give upper and lower bounds on the competitive ratio of $\ell$-out-of-$k$ prophet and secretary scenarios. These include a single-sample prophet algorithm that gives a competitive ratio of $1-\ell\cdot e^{-\Theta\left(\frac{\left(k-\ell\right)^2}{k}\right)}$, which is asymptotically tight for $k-\ell=\Theta(\ell)$. For secretary settings, we devise an algorithm that obtains a competitive ratio of $1-\ell e^{-\frac{k-8\ell}{2+2\ln \ell}} - e^{-k/6}$, and show that no secretary algorithm obtains a better ratio than $1-e^{-k}$ (up to negligible terms). In passing, our results lead to an improvement of the results of Assaf et al. [2000] for $1-out-of-k$ prophet scenarios. Beyond the contribution to online algorithms and optimal stopping theory, our results have implications to mechanism design. In particular, we use our prophet algorithms to derive {\em overbooking} mechanisms with good welfare and revenue guarantees; these are mechanisms that sell more items than the seller's capacity, then allocate to the agents with the highest values among the selected agents.

Prophets and Secretaries with Overbooking

2018-01-01
Tomer Ezra , Michal Feldman , Ilan Nehama
The prophet and secretary problems demonstrate online scenarios involving the optimal stopping theory. In a typical prophet or secretary problem, selection decisions are assumed to be immediate and irrevocable. However, … The prophet and secretary problems demonstrate online scenarios involving the optimal stopping theory. In a typical prophet or secretary problem, selection decisions are assumed to be immediate and irrevocable. However, many online settings accommodate some degree of revocability. To study such scenarios, we introduce the $\ell-out-of-k$ setting, where the decision maker can select up to $k$ elements immediately and irrevocably, but her performance is measured by the top $\ell$ elements in the selected set. Equivalently, the decision makes can hold up to $\ell$ elements at any given point in time, but can make up to $k-\ell$ returns as new elements arrive. We give upper and lower bounds on the competitive ratio of $\ell$-out-of-$k$ prophet and secretary scenarios. These include a single-sample prophet algorithm that gives a competitive ratio of $1-\ell\cdot e^{-\Theta\left(\frac{\left(k-\ell\right)^2}{k}\right)}$, which is asymptotically tight for $k-\ell=\Theta(\ell)$. For secretary settings, we devise an algorithm that obtains a competitive ratio of $1-\ell e^{-\frac{k-8\ell}{2+2\ln \ell}} - e^{-k/6}$, and show that no secretary algorithm obtains a better ratio than $1-e^{-k}$ (up to negligible terms). In passing, our results lead to an improvement of the results of Assaf et al. [2000] for $1-out-of-k$ prophet scenarios. Beyond the contribution to online algorithms and optimal stopping theory, our results have implications to mechanism design. In particular, we use our prophet algorithms to derive {\em overbooking} mechanisms with good welfare and revenue guarantees; these are mechanisms that sell more items than the seller's capacity, then allocate to the agents with the highest values among the selected agents.
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Prophet Secretary for Combinatorial Auctions and Matroids

2017-01-01
Soheil Ehsani , MohammadTaghi Hajiaghayi , Thomas Keßelheim +1 more
The secretary and the prophet inequality problems are central to the field of Stopping Theory. Recently, there has been a lot of work in generalizing these models to multiple items … The secretary and the prophet inequality problems are central to the field of Stopping Theory. Recently, there has been a lot of work in generalizing these models to multiple items because of their applications in mechanism design. The most important of these generalizations are to matroids and to combinatorial auctions (extends bipartite matching). Kleinberg-Weinberg \cite{KW-STOC12} and Feldman et al. \cite{feldman2015combinatorial} show that for adversarial arrival order of random variables the optimal prophet inequalities give a $1/2$-approximation. For many settings, however, it's conceivable that the arrival order is chosen uniformly at random, akin to the secretary problem. For such a random arrival model, we improve upon the $1/2$-approximation and obtain $(1-1/e)$-approximation prophet inequalities for both matroids and combinatorial auctions. This also gives improvements to the results of Yan \cite{yan2011mechanism} and Esfandiari et al. \cite{esfandiari2015prophet} who worked in the special cases where we can fully control the arrival order or when there is only a single item. Our techniques are threshold based. We convert our discrete problem into a continuous setting and then give a generic template on how to dynamically adjust these thresholds to lower bound the expected total welfare.

Prophet Secretary for Combinatorial Auctions and Matroids

2024-11-12
Soheil Ehsani , MohammadTaghi Hajiaghayi , Thomas Keßelheim +1 more
The secretary and the prophet inequality problems are central to the field of Stopping Theory. Recently, there has been a lot of work in generalizing these models to multiple items … The secretary and the prophet inequality problems are central to the field of Stopping Theory. Recently, there has been a lot of work in generalizing these models to multiple items because of their applications in mechanism design. The most important of these generalizations are to matroids and to combinatorial auctions (extends bipartite matching). Kleinberg-Weinberg \cite{KW-STOC12} and Feldman et al. \cite{feldman2015combinatorial} show that for adversarial arrival order of random variables the optimal prophet inequalities give a $1/2$-approximation. For many settings, however, it's conceivable that the arrival order is chosen uniformly at random, akin to the secretary problem. For such a random arrival model, we improve upon the $1/2$-approximation and obtain $(1-1/e)$-approximation prophet inequalities for both matroids and combinatorial auctions. This also gives improvements to the results of Yan \cite{yan2011mechanism} and Esfandiari et al. \cite{esfandiari2015prophet} who worked in the special cases where we can fully control the arrival order or when there is only a single item. Our techniques are threshold based. We convert our discrete problem into a continuous setting and then give a generic template on how to dynamically adjust these thresholds to lower bound the expected total welfare.
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Prophet Inequalities Require Only a Constant Number of Samples

2024-06-10
Andrés Cristi , Bruno Ziliotto
In a prophet inequality problem, n independent random variables are presented to a gambler one by one. The gambler decides when to stop the sequence and obtains the most recent … In a prophet inequality problem, n independent random variables are presented to a gambler one by one. The gambler decides when to stop the sequence and obtains the most recent value as reward. We evaluate a stopping rule by the worst-case ratio between its expected reward and the expectation of the maximum variable. In the classic setting, the order is fixed, and the optimal ratio is known to be 1/2. Three variants of this problem have been extensively studied: the prophet-secretary model, where variables arrive in uniformly random order; the free-order model, where the gambler chooses the arrival order; and the i.i.d. model, where the distributions are all the same, rendering the arrival order irrelevant. Most of the literature assumes that distributions are known to the gambler. Recent work has considered the question of what is achievable when the gambler has access only to a few samples per distribution. Surprisingly, in the fixed-order case, a single sample from each distribution is enough to approximate the optimal ratio, but this is not the case in any of the three variants. We provide a unified proof that for all three variants of the problem, a constant number of samples (independent of n) for each distribution is good enough to approximate the optimal ratios. Prior to our work, this was known to be the case only in the i.i.d. variant. Previous works relied on explicitly constructing sample-based algorithms that match the best possible ratio. Remarkably, the optimal ratios for the prophet-secretary and the free-order variants with full information are still unknown. Consequently, our result requires a significantly different approach than for the classic problem and the i.i.d. variant, where the optimal ratios and the algorithms that achieve them are known. We complement our result showing that our algorithms can be implemented in polynomial time. A key ingredient in our proof is an existential result based on a minimax argument, which states that there must exist an algorithm that attains the optimal ratio and does not rely on the knowledge of the upper tail of the distributions. A second key ingredient is a refined sample-based version of a decomposition of the instance into "small" and "large" variables, first introduced by Liu et al. [EC'21]. The universality of our approach opens avenues for generalization to other sample-based models. Furthermore, we uncover structural properties that might help pinpoint the optimal ratios in the full-information cases.
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The two-sided game of googol and sample-based prophet inequalities

2020-01-05
José R. Correa , Andrés Cristi , Boris Epstein +1 more
The secretary problem or the game of Googol are classic models for online selection problems that have received significant attention in the last five decades. In this paper we consider … The secretary problem or the game of Googol are classic models for online selection problems that have received significant attention in the last five decades. In this paper we consider a variant of the problem and explore its connections to data-driven online selection. Specifically, we are given n cards with arbitrary nonnegative numbers written on both sides. The cards are randomly placed on n consecutive positions on a table, and for each card, the visible side is also selected at random. The player sees the visible side of all cards and wants to select the card with the maximum hidden value. To this end, the player flips the first card, sees its hidden value and decides whether to pick it or drop it and continue with the next card. We study algorithms for two natural objectives. In the first one, similar to the secretary problem, the player wants to maximize the probability of selecting the maximum hidden value. We show that this can be done with probability at least 0.45292. In the second objective, similar to the prophet inequality, the player wants to maximize the expectation of the selected hidden value. Here we show a guarantee of at least 0.63518 with respect to the expected maximum hidden value. Our algorithms result from combining three basic strategies. One is to stop whenever we see a value larger than the initial n visible numbers. The second one is to stop the first time the last flipped card's value is the largest of the currently n visible numbers in the table. And the third one is similar to the latter but to stop it additionally requires that the last flipped value is larger than the value on the other side of its card. We apply our results to the prophet secretary problem with unknown distributions, but with access to a single sample from each distribution. In particular, our guarantee improves upon 1 − 1/e for this problem, which is the currently best known guarantee and only works for the i.i.d. prophet inequality with samples.

Prophet Inequalities with Limited Information

2013-12-18
Pablo Azar , Robert Kleinberg , S. Matthew Weinberg
Previous chapter Next chapter Full AccessProceedings Proceedings of the 2014 Annual ACM-SIAM Symposium on Discrete Algorithms (SODA)Prophet Inequalities with Limited InformationPablo D. Azar, Robert Kleinberg, and S. Matthew WeinbergPablo D. … Previous chapter Next chapter Full AccessProceedings Proceedings of the 2014 Annual ACM-SIAM Symposium on Discrete Algorithms (SODA)Prophet Inequalities with Limited InformationPablo D. Azar, Robert Kleinberg, and S. Matthew WeinbergPablo D. Azar, Robert Kleinberg, and S. Matthew Weinbergpp.1358 - 1377Chapter DOI:https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611973402.100PDFBibTexSections ToolsAdd to favoritesExport CitationTrack CitationsEmail SectionsAboutAbstract In the classical prophet inequality, a gambler observes a sequence of stochastic rewards V1, …, Vn and must decide, for each reward Vi, whether to keep it and stop the game or to forfeit the reward forever and reveal the next value Vi. The gambler's goal is to obtain a constant fraction of the expected reward that the optimal offline algorithm would get. Recently, prophet inequalities have been generalized to settings where the gambler can choose k items, and, more generally, where he can choose any independent set in a matroid. However, all the existing algorithms require the gambler to know the distribution from which the rewards V1, …, Vn are drawn. The assumption that the gambler knows the distribution from which V1, …, Vn are drawn is very strong. Instead, we work with the much simpler assumption that the gambler only knows a few samples from this distribution. We construct the first single-sample prophet inequalities for many settings of interest, whose guarantees all match the best possible asymptotically, even with full knowledge of the distribution. Specifically, we provide a novel single-sample algorithm when the gambler can choose any k elements whose analysis is based on random walks with limited correlation. In addition, we provide a black-box method for converting specific types of solutions to the related secretary problem to single-sample prophet inequalities, and apply it to several existing algorithms. Finally, we provide a constant-sample prophet inequality for constant-degree bipartite matchings. In addition, we apply these results to design the first posted-price and multi-dimensional auction mechanisms with limited information in settings with asymmetric bidders. Connections between prophet inequalities and posted-price mechanisms are already known, but applying the existing framework requires knowledge of the underlying distributions, as well as the so-called "virtual values" even when the underlying prophet inequalities do not. We therefore provide an extension of this framework that bypasses virtual values altogether, allowing our mechanisms to take full advantage of the limited information required by our new prophet inequalities. Previous chapter Next chapter RelatedDetails Published:2014ISBN:978-1-61197-338-9eISBN:978-1-61197-340-2 https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611973402Book Series Name:ProceedingsBook Code:PRDA14Book Pages:viii + 1885
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Sample-driven optimal stopping: From the secretary problem to the i.i.d. prophet inequality

2020-01-01
José R. Correa , Andrés Cristi , Boris Epstein +1 more
We take a unifying approach to single selection optimal stopping problems with random arrival order and independent sampling of items. In the problem we consider, a decision maker (DM) initially … We take a unifying approach to single selection optimal stopping problems with random arrival order and independent sampling of items. In the problem we consider, a decision maker (DM) initially gets to sample each of $N$ items independently with probability $p$, and can observe the relative rankings of these sampled items. Then, the DM faces the remaining items in an online fashion, observing the relative rankings of all revealed items. While scanning the sequence the DM makes irrevocable stop/continue decisions and her reward for stopping the sequence facing the item with rank $i$ is $Y_i$. The goal of the DM is to maximize her reward. We start by studying the case in which the values $Y_i$ are known to the DM, and then move to the case in which these values are adversarial. For the former case, we write the natural linear program that captures the performance of an algorithm, and take its continuous limit. We prove a structural result about this continuous limit, which allows us to reduce the problem to a relatively simple real optimization problem. We establish that the optimal algorithm is given by a sequence of thresholds $t_1\le t_2\le\cdots$ such that the DM should stop if seeing an item with current ranking $i$ after time $t_i$. Additionally we are able to recover several classic results in the area such as those for secretary problem and the minimum ranking problem. For the adversarial case, we obtain a similar linear program with an additional stochastic dominance constraint. Using the same machinery we are able to pin down the optimal competitive ratios for all values of $p$. Notably, we prove that as $p$ approaches 1, our guarantee converges linearly to 0.745, matching that of the i.i.d.~prophet inequality. Also interesting is the case $p=1/2$, where our bound evaluates to $0.671$, which improves upon the state of the art.
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Prophet Inequality on I.I.D. Distributions: Beating 1-1/e with a Single Query

2022-01-01
Bo Li , Xiaowei Wu , Yutong Wu
In this work, we study the single-choice prophet inequality problem, where a gambler faces a sequence of~$n$ online i.i.d. random variables drawn from an unknown distribution. When a variable reveals … In this work, we study the single-choice prophet inequality problem, where a gambler faces a sequence of~$n$ online i.i.d. random variables drawn from an unknown distribution. When a variable reveals its value, the gambler needs to decide irrevocably whether or not to accept the value. The goal is to maximize the competitive ratio between the expected gain of the gambler and that of the maximum variable. It is shown by Correa et al. that when the distribution is unknown or only $o(n)$ uniform samples from the distribution are given, the best an algorithm can do is $1/e$-competitive. In contrast, when the distribution is known or $\Omega(n)$ uniform samples are given, the optimal competitive ratio of 0.7451 can be achieved. In this paper, we study a new model in which the algorithm has access to an oracle that answers quantile queries about the distribution and investigate to what extent we can use a small number of queries to achieve good competitive ratios. We first use the answers from the queries to implement the threshold-based algorithms and show that with two thresholds our algorithm achieves a competitive ratio of $0.6786$. Motivated by the two-threshold algorithm, we design the observe-and-accept algorithm that requires only a single query. This algorithm sets a threshold in the first phase by making a query and uses the maximum realization from the first phase as the threshold for the second phase. It can be viewed as a natural combination of the single-threshold algorithm and the algorithm for the secretary problem. By properly choosing the quantile to query and the break-point between the two phases, we achieve a competitive ratio of $0.6718$, beating the benchmark of $1-1/e$.

Individual Fairness in Prophet Inequalities

2022-07-12
Makis Arsenis , Robert Kleinberg
Prophet inequalities are performance guarantees for online algorithms (a.k.a. stopping rules) solving the following ''hiring problem'': a decision maker sequentially inspects candidates whose values are independent random numbers and is … Prophet inequalities are performance guarantees for online algorithms (a.k.a. stopping rules) solving the following ''hiring problem'': a decision maker sequentially inspects candidates whose values are independent random numbers and is asked to hire at most one candidate by selecting it before inspecting the values of future candidates in the sequence. A classic result in optimal stopping theory asserts that there exist stopping rules guaranteeing that the decision maker will hire a candidate whose expected value is at least half as good as the expected value of the candidate hired by a ''prophet,'' i.e.one who has simultaneous access to the realizations of all candidates' values.
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Prophet Inequalities with Cancellation Costs

2024-03-30
Farbod Ekbatani , Rad Niazadeh , Pranav Nuti +1 more
Most of the literature on online algorithms and sequential decision-making focuses on settings with "irrevocable decisions" where the algorithm's decision upon arrival of the new input is set in stone … Most of the literature on online algorithms and sequential decision-making focuses on settings with "irrevocable decisions" where the algorithm's decision upon arrival of the new input is set in stone and can never change in the future. One canonical example is the classic prophet inequality problem, where realizations of a sequence of independent random variables $X_1, X_2,\ldots$ with known distributions are drawn one by one and a decision maker decides when to stop and accept the arriving random variable, with the goal of maximizing the expected value of their pick. We consider "prophet inequalities with recourse" in the linear buyback cost setting, where after accepting a variable $X_i$, we can still discard $X_i$ later and accept another variable $X_j$, at a \textit{buyback cost} of $f \times X_i$. The goal is to maximize the expected net reward, which is the value of the final accepted variable minus the total buyback cost. Our first main result is an optimal prophet inequality in the regime of $f \geq 1$, where we prove that we can achieve an expected reward $\frac{1+f}{1+2f}$ times the expected offline optimum. The problem is still open for $0<f<1$ and we give some partial results in this regime. In particular, as our second main result, we characterize the asymptotic behavior of the competitive ratio for small $f$ and provide almost matching upper and lower bounds that show a factor of $1-\Theta\left(f\log(\frac{1}{f})\right)$. Our results are obtained by two fundamentally different approaches: One is inspired by various proofs of the classical prophet inequality, while the second is based on combinatorial optimization techniques involving LP duality, flows, and cuts.
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Prophet Inequality: Order selection beats random order

2022-01-01
Archit Bubna , Ashish Chiplunkar
In the prophet inequality problem, a gambler faces a sequence of items arriving online with values drawn independently from known distributions. On seeing an item, the gambler must choose whether … In the prophet inequality problem, a gambler faces a sequence of items arriving online with values drawn independently from known distributions. On seeing an item, the gambler must choose whether to accept its value as her reward and quit the game, or reject it and continue. The gambler's aim is to maximize her expected reward relative to the expected maximum of the values of all items. Since the seventies, a tight bound of 1/2 has been known for this competitive ratio in the setting where the items arrive in an adversarial order (Krengel and Sucheston, 1977, 1978). However, the optimum ratio still remains unknown in the order selection setting, where the gambler selects the arrival order, as well as in prophet secretary, where the items arrive in a random order. Moreover, it is not even known whether a separation exists between the two settings. In this paper, we show that the power of order selection allows the gambler to guarantee a strictly better competitive ratio than if the items arrive randomly. For the order selection setting, we identify an instance for which Peng and Tang's (FOCS'22) state-of-the-art algorithm performs no better than their claimed competitive ratio of (approximately) 0.7251, thus illustrating the need for an improved approach. We therefore extend their design and provide a more general algorithm design framework, using which we show that their ratio can be beaten, by designing a 0.7258-competitive algorithm. For the random order setting, we improve upon Correa, Saona and Ziliotto's (SODA'19) 0.732-hardness result to show a hardness of 0.7254 for general algorithms - even in the setting where the gambler knows the arrival order beforehand, thus establishing a separation between the order selection and random order settings.
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Prophets and Secretaries with Overbooking

2018-06-11
Tomer Ezra , Michal Feldman , Ilan Nehama
The prophet and secretary problems demonstrate online scenarios involving the optimal stopping theory. In a typical prophet or secretary problem, selection decisions are assumed to be immediate and irrevocable. However, … The prophet and secretary problems demonstrate online scenarios involving the optimal stopping theory. In a typical prophet or secretary problem, selection decisions are assumed to be immediate and irrevocable. However, many online settings accommodate some degree of revocability. To study such scenarios, we introduce the l-out-of- k setting, where the decision maker can select up to k elements immediately and irrevocably, but her performance is measured by the top l elements in the selected set. Equivalently, the decision makes can hold up to l elements at any given point in time, but can make up to k-l returns as new elements arrive. We give upper and lower bounds on the competitive ratio of l-out-of- k prophet and secretary scenarios. For l-out-of- k prophet scenarios we provide a single-sample algorithm with competitive ratio 1-l· e-Θ((k-l)2/k) . The algorithm is a single-threshold algorithm, which sets a threshold that equals the (l+k/2)th highest sample, and accepts all values exceeding this threshold, up to reaching capacity k . On the other hand, we show that this result is tight if the number of possible returns is linear in l (i.e., k-l =Θ(l)). In particular, we show that no single-sample algorithm obtains a competitive ratio better than 1 - 2-(2k+1)/k+1 . We also present a deterministic single-threshold algorithm for the 1-out-of- k prophet setting which obtains a competitive ratio of 1-3/2 · e-s/k 6, knowing only the distribution of the maximum value. This result improves the result of [Assaf & Samuel-Cahn, J. of App. Prob., 2000].
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Tight Revenue Gaps among Multi-Unit Mechanisms

2021-07-18
Yaonan Jin , Shunhua Jiang , Pinyan Lu +1 more
This paper considers Bayesian revenue maximization in the k-unit setting, where a monopolist seller has k copies of an indivisible item and faces n unit-demand buyers (whose value distributions can … This paper considers Bayesian revenue maximization in the k-unit setting, where a monopolist seller has k copies of an indivisible item and faces n unit-demand buyers (whose value distributions can be non-identical). Four basic mechanisms among others have been widely employed in practice and widely studied in the literature: Myerson Auction, Sequential Posted-Pricing, (k + 1)-th Price Auction with Anonymous Reserve, and Anonymous Pricing. Regarding a pair of mechanisms, we investigate the largest possible ratio between the two revenues (a.k.a. the revenue gap), over all possible value distributions of the buyers. Divide these four mechanisms into two groups: (i) the discriminating mechanism group, Myerson Auction and Sequential Posted-Pricing, and (ii) the anonymous mechanism group, Anonymous Reserve and Anonymous Pricing. Within one group, the involved two mechanisms have an asymptotically tight revenue gap of 1 + Θ(1 / √k). In contrast, any two mechanisms from the different groups have an asymptotically tight revenue gap of Θ(łog k).
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Assortment Auctions: A Myersonian Characterization for Markov Chain based Choice Models

2019-09-01
Will Ma
In this paper, we introduce the concept of an assortment auction, where a seller is selling substitute products/services with fixed prices (as in assortment optimization), and buyers compete for a … In this paper, we introduce the concept of an assortment auction, where a seller is selling substitute products/services with fixed prices (as in assortment optimization), and buyers compete for a limited supply of these products in an auction. Each buyer reports a ranked list of products she is willing to purchase, after which the seller allocates products to buyers using a truthful mechanism, subject to a supply constraint on the total number of products allocated. The seller collects revenues equal to the prices of the products allocated, and would like to design a mechanism to maximize total revenue, when the buyers' lists are drawn independently from known distributions. When there is one buyer, our mechanism design problem reduces to the assortment optimization problem, which is known to be tractable for lists drawn from a Markov Chain choice model. We extend this result and compute the optimal auction, when there are multiple buyers with heterogeneous Markov chains. Moreover, we show that the optimal auction is structurally ``Myersonian'', in that each buyer is assigned a virtual valuation based on her report and distribution, after which the mechanism maximizes virtual surplus. Since Markov chains capture the classical notion of a valuation distribution, our optimal assortment auction generalizes the classical Myerson's auction. Finally, we show that without the Markov chain assumption, the optimal assortment auction may be structurally non-Myersonian. To conclude, we apply our theory in online assortment problems. First, we use the virtual valuations for Markov Chain choice models to derive personalized assortment policies. Moreover, we show that the optimal assortment auction provides a tighter benchmark than the commonly-used ``deterministic LP'' for online assortment, leading to the first approximation guarantees for these problems which break the ``barrier'' of 1-1/e.

Beating Greedy For Approximating Reserve Prices in Multi-Unit VCG Auctions

2021-01-01
Mahsa Derakhshan , David M. Pennock , Aleksandrs Slivkins
We study the problem of finding personalized reserve prices for unit-demand buyers in multi-unit eager VCG auctions with correlated buyers. The input to this problem is a dataset of submitted … We study the problem of finding personalized reserve prices for unit-demand buyers in multi-unit eager VCG auctions with correlated buyers. The input to this problem is a dataset of submitted bids of n buyers in a set of auctions. The goal is to find a vector of reserve prices, one for each buyer, that maximizes the total revenue across all auctions.Roughgarden and Wang (2016) showed that this problem is APX-hard but admits a greedy ½-approximation algorithm. Later, Derakhshan, Golrezai, and Paes Leme (2019) gave an LP-based algorithm achieving a 0.68-approximation for the (important) special case of the problem with a single-item, thereby beating greedy. We show in this paper that the algorithm of Derakhshan et al. in fact does not beat greedy for the general multi-item problem. This raises the question of whether or not the general problem admits a better-than-½ approximation.In this paper, we answer this question in the affirmative and provide a polynomial-time algorithm with a significantly better approximation-factor of 0.63. Our solution is based on a novel linear programming formulation, for which we propose two different rounding schemes. We prove that the best of these two and the no-reserve case (all-zero vector) is a 0.63-approximation.Full version. Due to the page limit, this version of the paper does not include all the proofs. The full version of the paper is available at [11].
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Tight Revenue Gaps among Simple Mechanisms

2019-01-01
Yaonan Jin , Pinyan Lu , Zhihao Gavin Tang +1 more
We consider a fundamental problem in microeconomics: Selling a single item among a number of buyers whose values are drawn from known independent and regular distributions. There are four widely-used … We consider a fundamental problem in microeconomics: Selling a single item among a number of buyers whose values are drawn from known independent and regular distributions. There are four widely-used and widely-studied mechanisms in this literature: Anonymous Posted-Pricing (AP), Second-Price Auction with Anonymous Reserve (AR), Sequential Posted-Pricing (SPM), and Myerson Auction (OPT). Myerson Auction is optimal but complicated, which also suffers a few issues in practice such as fairness; AP is the simplest mechanism, but its revenue is also the lowest among these four; AR and SPM are of intermediate complexity and revenue. We study the revenue gaps among these four mechanisms, which is defined as the largest ratio between revenues from two mechanisms. We establish two tight ratios and one tighter bound:1.SPM/AP. This ratio studies the power of discrimination in pricing schemes. We obtain the tight ratio of roughly 2.62, closing the previous known bounds [e/(e – 1), e].2.AR/AP. This ratio studies the relative power of auction vs. pricing schemes, when no discrimination is allowed. We get the tight ratio of π2/6 ≈ 1.64, closing the previous known bounds [e/(e – 1), e].3.OPT/AR. This ratio studies the power of discrimination in auctions. Previously, the revenue gap is known to be in interval [2, e], and the lower-bound of 2 is conjectured to be tight [38, 37, 4]. We disprove this conjecture by obtaining a better lower-bound of 2.15.
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Predict and Match: Prophet Inequalities with Uncertain Supply

2020-01-01
Reza Alijani , Siddhartha Banerjee , Sreenivas Gollapudi +2 more
We consider the problem of selling perishable items to a stream of buyers in order to maximize social welfare. A seller starts with a set of identical items, and each … We consider the problem of selling perishable items to a stream of buyers in order to maximize social welfare. A seller starts with a set of identical items, and each arriving buyer wants any one item, and has a valuation drawn i.i.d. from a known distribution. Each item, however, disappears after an a priori unknown amount of time that we term the horizon for that item. The seller knows the (possibly different) distribution of the horizon for each item, but not its realization till the item actually disappears. As with the classic prophet inequalities, the goal is to design an online pricing scheme that competes with the prophet that knows the horizon and extracts full social surplus (or welfare). Our main results are for the setting where items have independent horizon distributions satisfying the monotone-hazard-rate (MHR) condition. Here, for any number of items, we achieve a constant-competitive bound via a conceptually simple policy that balances the rate at which buyers are accepted with the rate at which items are removed from the system. We implement this policy via a novel technique of matching via probabilistically simulating departures of the items at future times. Moreover, for a single item and MHR horizon distribution with mean $\mu$, we show a tight result: There is a fixed pricing scheme that has competitive ratio at most $2 - 1/\mu$, and this is the best achievable in this class. We further show that our results are best possible. First, we show that the competitive ratio is unbounded without the MHR assumption even for one item. Further, even when the horizon distributions are i.i.d. MHR and the number of items becomes large, the competitive ratio of any policy is lower bounded by a constant greater than $1$, which is in sharp contrast to the setting with identical deterministic horizons.
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Unknown I.I.D. prophets: better bounds, streaming algorithms, and a new impossibility

2020-07-12
José R. Correa , Paul Dütting , Felix Fischer +2 more
A prophet inequality states, for some α ∈ [0, 1], that the expected value achievable by a gambler who sequentially observes random variables X1, . . . , Xn and … A prophet inequality states, for some α ∈ [0, 1], that the expected value achievable by a gambler who sequentially observes random variables X1, . . . , Xn and selects one of them is at least an α fraction of the maximum value in the sequence. We obtain three distinct improvements for a setting that was first studied by Correa et al. (EC, 2019) and is particularly relevant to modern applications in algorithmic pricing. In this setting, the random variables are i.i.d. from an unknown distribution and the gambler has access to an additional βn samples for some β ≥ 0. We first give improved lower bounds on α for a wide range of values of β; specifically, α ≥ (1 + β)/e when β ≤ 1/(e − 1), which is tight, and α ≥ 0.648 when β = 1, which improves on a bound of around 0.635 due to Correa et al. (SODA, 2020). Adding to their practical appeal, specifically in the context of algorithmic pricing, we then show that the new bounds can be obtained even in a streaming model of computation and thus in situations where the use of relevant data is complicated by the sheer amount of data available. We finally establish that the upper bound of 1/e for the case without samples is robust to additional information about the distribution, and applies also to sequences of i.i.d. random variables whose distribution is itself drawn, according to a known distribution, from a finite set of known candidate distributions. This implies a tight prophet inequality for exchangeable sequences of random variables, answering a question of Hill and Kertz (Contemporary Mathematics, 1992), but leaves open the possibility of better guarantees when the number of candidate distributions is small, a setting we believe is of strong interest to applications.

Prophet Inequalities with Linear Correlations and Augmentations

2020-01-01
Nicole Immorlica , Sahil Singla , Bo Waggoner
In a classical online decision problem, a decision-maker who is trying to maximize her value inspects a sequence of arriving items to learn their values (drawn from known distributions), and … In a classical online decision problem, a decision-maker who is trying to maximize her value inspects a sequence of arriving items to learn their values (drawn from known distributions), and decides when to stop the process by taking the current item. The goal is to prove a "prophet inequality": that she can do approximately as well as a prophet with foreknowledge of all the values. In this work, we investigate this problem when the values are allowed to be correlated. Since non-trivial guarantees are impossible for arbitrary correlations, we consider a natural "linear" correlation structure introduced by Bateni et al. [ESA 2015] as a generalization of the common-base value model of Chawla et al. [GEB 2015]. A key challenge is that threshold-based algorithms, which are commonly used for prophet inequalities, no longer guarantee good performance for linear correlations. We relate this roadblock to another "augmentations" challenge that might be of independent interest: many existing prophet inequality algorithms are not robust to slight increase in the values of the arriving items. We leverage this intuition to prove bounds (matching up to constant factors) that decay gracefully with the amount of correlation of the arriving items. We extend these results to the case of selecting multiple items by designing a new $(1+o(1))$ approximation ratio algorithm that is robust to augmentations.
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Optimal Single-Choice Prophet Inequalities from Samples

2019-11-18
Aviad Rubinstein , Jack Z. Wang , S. Matthew Weinberg
We study the single-choice Prophet Inequality problem when the gambler is given access to samples. We show that the optimal competitive ratio of $1/2$ can be achieved with a single … We study the single-choice Prophet Inequality problem when the gambler is given access to samples. We show that the optimal competitive ratio of $1/2$ can be achieved with a single sample from each distribution. When the distributions are identical, we show that for any constant $\varepsilon > 0$, $O(n)$ samples from the distribution suffice to achieve the optimal competitive ratio ($\approx 0.745$) within $(1+\varepsilon)$, resolving an open problem of Correa, Dutting, Fischer, and Schewior.

Tight Revenue Gaps among Multi-Unit Mechanisms

2021-01-01
Yaonan Jin , Shunhua Jiang , Pinyan Lu +1 more
This paper considers Bayesian revenue maximization in the $k$-unit setting, where a monopolist seller has $k$ copies of an indivisible item and faces $n$ unit-demand buyers (whose value distributions can … This paper considers Bayesian revenue maximization in the $k$-unit setting, where a monopolist seller has $k$ copies of an indivisible item and faces $n$ unit-demand buyers (whose value distributions can be non-identical). Four basic mechanisms among others have been widely employed in practice and widely studied in the literature: {\sf Myerson Auction}, {\sf Sequential Posted-Pricing}, {\sf $(k + 1)$-th Price Auction with Anonymous Reserve}, and {\sf Anonymous Pricing}. Regarding a pair of mechanisms, we investigate the largest possible ratio between the two revenues (a.k.a.\ the revenue gap), over all possible value distributions of the buyers. Divide these four mechanisms into two groups: (i)~the discriminating mechanism group, {\sf Myerson Auction} and {\sf Sequential Posted-Pricing}, and (ii)~the anonymous mechanism group, {\sf Anonymous Reserve} and {\sf Anonymous Pricing}. Within one group, the involved two mechanisms have an asymptotically tight revenue gap of $1 + \Theta(1 / \sqrt{k})$. In contrast, any two mechanisms from the different groups have an asymptotically tight revenue gap of $\Theta(\log k)$.

Percolation games

2021-10-23
Guillaume Garnier , Bruno Ziliotto
This paper introduces a discrete-time stochastic game class on $\mathbb{Z}^d$, which plays the role of a toy model for the well-known problem of stochastic homogenization of Hamilton-Jacobi equations. Conditions are … This paper introduces a discrete-time stochastic game class on $\mathbb{Z}^d$, which plays the role of a toy model for the well-known problem of stochastic homogenization of Hamilton-Jacobi equations. Conditions are provided under which the $n$-stage game value converges as $n$ tends to infinity, and connections with homogenization theory is discussed.

On optimal ordering in the optimal stopping problem

2019-01-01
Shipra Agrawal , Jay Sethuraman , Xingyu Zhang
In the classical optimal stopping problem, a player is given a sequence of random variables $X_1\ldots X_n$ with known distributions. After observing the realization of $X_i$, the player can either … In the classical optimal stopping problem, a player is given a sequence of random variables $X_1\ldots X_n$ with known distributions. After observing the realization of $X_i$, the player can either accept the observed reward from $X_i$ and stop, or reject the observed reward from $X_i$ and continue to observe the next variable $X_{i+1}$ in the sequence. Under any fixed ordering of the random variables, an optimal stopping policy, one that maximizes the player's expected reward, is given by the solution of a simple dynamic program. In this paper, we investigate the relatively less studied question of selecting the order in which the random variables should be observed so as to maximize the expected reward at the stopping time. To demonstrate the benefits of order selection, we prove a novel prophet inequality showing that, when the support of each random variable has size at most 2, the optimal ordering can achieve an expected reward that is within a factor of 1.25 of the expected hindsight maximum; this is an improvement over the corresponding factor of 2 for the worst-case ordering. We also provide a simple $O(n^2)$ algorithm for finding an optimal ordering in this case. Perhaps surprisingly, we demonstrate that a slightly more general case - each random variable $X_i$ is restricted to have 3-point support of form $\{0, m_i, 1\}$ - is NP-hard, and provide an FPTAS for that case.
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Bayesian and Randomized Clock Auctions

2022-07-12
Michal Feldman , Vasilis Gkatzelis , Nick Gravin +1 more
In a single-parameter mechanism design problem, a provider is looking to sell some service to a group of potential buyers. Each buyer i has a private value vi for receiving … In a single-parameter mechanism design problem, a provider is looking to sell some service to a group of potential buyers. Each buyer i has a private value vi for receiving this service, and some feasibility constraint restricts which subsets of buyers can be served simultaneously. Recent work in economics introduced (deferred-acceptance) clock auctions as a superior class of auctions for this problem, due to their transparency, simplicity, and very strong incentive guarantees. Subsequent work in computer science focused on evaluating these auctions with respect to their social welfare approximation guarantees, leading to strong impossibility results: in the absence of prior information regarding the buyers' values, no deterministic clock auction can achieve a bounded approximation, even for simple feasibility constraints with only two maximal feasible sets.
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On the best-choice prophet secretary problem.

2020-12-04
Pranav Nuti
We study a variant of the secretary problem where candidates come from independent, not necessarily identical distributions known to us, and show that we can do at least as well … We study a variant of the secretary problem where candidates come from independent, not necessarily identical distributions known to us, and show that we can do at least as well as in the IID setting. This resolves a conjecture of Esfandiari et al.

Variable Decomposition for Prophet Inequalities and Optimal Ordering

2020-01-01
Allen Liu , Renato Paes Leme , Martin Pál +2 more
We introduce a new decomposition technique for random variables that maps a generic instance of the prophet inequalities problem to a new instance where all but a constant number of … We introduce a new decomposition technique for random variables that maps a generic instance of the prophet inequalities problem to a new instance where all but a constant number of variables have a tractable structure that we refer to as $(\varepsilon, \delta)$-smallness. Using this technique, we make progress on several outstanding problems in the area: - We show that, even in the case of non-identical distributions, it is possible to achieve (arbitrarily close to) the optimal approximation ratio of $\beta \approx 0.745$ as long as we are allowed to remove a small constant number of distributions. - We show that for frequent instances of prophet inequalities (where each distribution reoccurs some number of times), it is possible to achieve the optimal approximation ratio of $\beta$ (improving over the previous best-known bound of $0.738$). - We give a new, simpler proof of Kertz's optimal approximation guarantee of $\beta \approx 0.745$ for prophet inequalities with i.i.d. distributions. The proof is primal-dual and simultaneously produces upper and lower bounds. - Using this decomposition in combination with a novel convex programming formulation, we construct the first Efficient PTAS for the Optimal Ordering problem.

Improved Revenue Bounds for Posted-Price and Second-Price Mechanisms

2018-07-10
Hedyeh Beyhaghi , Negin Golrezaei , Renato Paes Leme +2 more
We study revenue maximization through sequential posted-price (SPP) mechanisms in single-dimensional settings with $n$ buyers and independent but not necessarily identical value distributions. We construct the SPP mechanisms by considering … We study revenue maximization through sequential posted-price (SPP) mechanisms in single-dimensional settings with $n$ buyers and independent but not necessarily identical value distributions. We construct the SPP mechanisms by considering the best of two simple pricing rules: one that imitates the revenue optimal mchanism, namely the Myersonian mechanism, via the taxation principle and the other that posts a uniform price. Our pricing rules are rather generalizable and yield the first improvement over long-established approximation factors in several settings. We design factor-revealing mathematical programs that crisply capture the approximation factor of our SPP mechanism. In the single-unit setting, our SPP mechanism yields a better approximation factor than the state of the art prior to our work (Azar, Chiplunkar & Kaplan, 2018). In the multi-unit setting, our SPP mechanism yields the first improved approximation factor over the state of the art after over nine years (Yan, 2011 and Chakraborty et al., 2010). Our results on SPP mechanisms immediately imply improved performance guarantees for the equivalent free-order prophet inequality problem. In the position auction setting, our SPP mechanism yields the first higher-than $1-1/e$ approximation factor. In eager second-price (ESP) auctions, our two simple pricing rules lead to the first improved approximation factor that is strictly greater than what is obtained by the SPP mechanism in the single-unit setting.

Prophet Matching Meets Probing with Commitment

2021-01-01
Allan Borodin , Calum MacRury , Akash Rakheja
We consider the online stochastic matching problem for bipartite graphs where edges adjacent to an online node must be probed to determine if they exist, based on known edge probabilities. … We consider the online stochastic matching problem for bipartite graphs where edges adjacent to an online node must be probed to determine if they exist, based on known edge probabilities. Our algorithms respect commitment, in that if a probed edge exists, it must be used in the matching. We study this matching problem subject to a downward-closed constraint on each online node's allowable edge probes. Our setting generalizes the commonly studied patience (or time-out) constraint which limits the number of probes that can be made to an online node's adjacent edges. We introduce a new LP that we prove is a relaxation of an optimal offline probing algorithm (the adaptive benchmark) and which overcomes the limitations of previous LP relaxations. (1) A tight $\frac{1}{2}$ ratio when the stochastic graph is generated from a known stochastic type graph where the $t^{th}$ online node is drawn independently from a known distribution $\scr{D}_{π(t)}$ and $π$ is chosen adversarially. We refer to this setting as the known i.d. stochastic matching problem with adversarial arrivals. (2) A $1-1/e$ ratio when the stochastic graph is generated from a known stochastic type graph where the $t^{th}$ online node is drawn independently from a known distribution $\scr{D}_{π(t)}$ and $π$ is a random permutation. We refer to this setting as the known i.d. stochastic matching problem with random order arrivals. Our results improve upon the previous best competitive ratio of $0.46$ in the known i.i.d. setting against the standard adaptive benchmark. Moreover, we are the first to study the prophet secretary matching problem in the context of probing, where we match the best known classical result.