Type: Article
Publication Date: 2011-10-04
Citations: 43
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/srep00105
The role of demographic variables in disease spread in remote and isolated communities is poorly understood. We developed an agent-based model of a small indigenous community to qualitatively study the impact of pre-existing immunity in both young and elderly populations. We observed that in crowded living conditions, the age distribution of the population is a critical factor influencing epidemic spread. As the average age of the population increases, the effect of the pre-existing immunity in older individuals becomes more pronounced in decreasing disease incidence, even when pre-existing immunity levels in young individuals are low. However, in a non-crowded setting with relatively low average persons-per-household, the pre-existing immunity levels of young individuals remains a determining factor, regardless of the age distribution of the population. We suggest that for optimizing public health policies, social and demographic complexities of the remote and vulnerable communities should be carefully evaluated in modeling intervention strategies.