Environmental Science Ecological Modeling

Evaluation Methods in Various Fields

Description

This cluster of papers focuses on the application of fuzzy modeling, analytic hierarchy process, and entropy weight decision-making in various environmental and energy-related domains. It also explores the use of tree shrews as an emerging model for human diseases, particularly lung cancer. Additionally, it addresses topics such as urban green transportation planning, power quality monitoring systems, and residential electricity demand responses.

Keywords

Fuzzy Modeling; Analytic Hierarchy Process; Entropy Weight; Power Network Structure Assessment; Tree Shrews; Seismic Reservoir Rules Extraction; Urban Green Transportation Planning; Power Quality Monitoring System; Lung Cancer Model; Electricity Demand Response

Urban traffic congestion has different typical characteristics under the influence of different conditions, such as different day of week, holiday and weather etc. It is necessary to set up the … Urban traffic congestion has different typical characteristics under the influence of different conditions, such as different day of week, holiday and weather etc. It is necessary to set up the relationships between traffic congestion patterns and those influencing factors, when we conducting macroscopic analysis on the causes of traffic congestion. Based on Traffic Performance Index (TPI), a dynamic macroscopic index showing the whole area congestion intensity developed in 2007, typical congestion patterns are identified by using clustering method. A comparative analysis is conducted on setting rules for different clustering indexes. TPI pattern curves are derived and verified under combinations of date, transportation demand management policy, holiday, weather condition and etc., according to the actual traffic operational status. The analysis and verification results show that the method used in this paper is effective and feasible. TPI patterns indicate that traffic congestion has inherent characteristics which are primary and essential for transportation managers. This paper lays the foundation for traffic congestion prediction and early warning and proactive alleviation of traffic congestions.
Selecting appropriate fixed seismic shelters for evacuation is key to earthquake engineering in cities. The author establishes an evaluation system comprising 3 first-level indices and 9 second-level indices related to … Selecting appropriate fixed seismic shelters for evacuation is key to earthquake engineering in cities. The author establishes an evaluation system comprising 3 first-level indices and 9 second-level indices related to influential factors such as risk of hazard, location & size and rescue facilities. The indices are generated by use of AHP and entropy methods. Finally, fixed seismic shelters for evacuation are selected by applying TOPSIS method, which proves the applicability of this method.
It has become a realistic choice to develop smart grid actively to meet the electricity demand for load centers, especially in China. In the current period of rapid development, in … It has become a realistic choice to develop smart grid actively to meet the electricity demand for load centers, especially in China. In the current period of rapid development, in order to effectively measure the safety level of smart grid, to compare power grid safety among different regions or within the same region at different times, in this paper, smart grid safety evaluation index system is proposed from six aspects such as structural safety of transmission network, structural safety of distribution network, high-efficient system and equipment support, operational safety and stability, adequacy and Resilience. With the thought of combined evaluation, this paper uses AHP-Entropy method to evaluate the safety of smart grid. Finally, an empirical study shows this method is effective.
With the global climate change, drought disasters occur frequently and caused huge economic loss. In this paper, a drought risk assessment model based on fuzzy Analytic Network Process (ANP) method … With the global climate change, drought disasters occur frequently and caused huge economic loss. In this paper, a drought risk assessment model based on fuzzy Analytic Network Process (ANP) method is put forward. ANP is an extension of AHP method and can more reasonably reflect the interdependence between the same layers of evaluation index system. The index system of agricultural drought risk assessment is established. An application is demonstrated by Hunan Province agricultural drought in China from 2007 to 2009. The result shows that the method is effective for agricultural drought risk assessment.
In recent years, entities in both the public and private sectors have experienced many new challenges and demands resulting from the combination of a harsh economic climate and rapid developments … In recent years, entities in both the public and private sectors have experienced many new challenges and demands resulting from the combination of a harsh economic climate and rapid developments in technology, market conditions and globalization. Toensure the survival of these organizations, internal auditing has increasingly been viewed by regulators, directors of listed companies and governing members of many public sector entities world-wide as one of the solutions. Specifically, the need for strong 'corporate governance' in the management of corporations and public sector enterprises has focussed attention on the internal audit function. Good corporate governance demands sound financial and operational control over the activities of an entity.
Fire accidents are influenced by many complex factors, and it has the characteristic of both randomicity and fluctuation, so a new forecasting model (Grey-Markov model) was established in order to … Fire accidents are influenced by many complex factors, and it has the characteristic of both randomicity and fluctuation, so a new forecasting model (Grey-Markov model) was established in order to forecast fire accidents effectively in this paper, which has the merits of both GM (1, 1) forecast model and Markov chain forecast model, it can reduce random fluctuation of accident data affecting forecasting precision and develop the application scope of Grey forecast. Finally, an example was analyzed, the results show that Grey-Markov model proposed in this paper has a higher forecast precision and excellent applicability.
With the rapid development of the national economy of China, an increasing need for transportation facilities is becoming a serious challenge that the existing traffic system has to meet. Thus, … With the rapid development of the national economy of China, an increasing need for transportation facilities is becoming a serious challenge that the existing traffic system has to meet. Thus, the highway transportation capacity development level assessment has important significance in theory and in practice. In order to overcome the current defects of stronger subjectivity and experience in common assessment methods, the entropy weight and the TOPSIS method were introduced and employed to the comprehensive assessment of highway transportation capacity development. Shannon information entropy was applied to determine the weight value of each index in the comprehensive assessment model. After determining the index weight, the result of comprehensive assessment was obtained through the TOPSIS method. Finally, the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method were shown by application in practice.
Electric distribution system planning is to provide an economic expansion plan to meet the future demands in its territory. A forecast of the future electric demand and its geographic distribution … Electric distribution system planning is to provide an economic expansion plan to meet the future demands in its territory. A forecast of the future electric demand and its geographic distribution is a prerequisite for distribution planning. The quality and accuracy of this forecast have a large influence on the quality of the electrical distribution system planning. Spatial load forecasting emerges to provide a more accurate prediction of both the magnitudes and locations of future electric loads. Since the load growth pattern is dominated by its land-use (residential, commercial, or industrial), the land usage study of small area is important to capture the future loads accurately. There are many factors which will affect the customer land-use decision, for example, distance to highway, distance to urban pole, and the costs. The customer's preferences can be estimated based on these objective factors. Then the land utilization and the electricity consumption can be estimated. Since the objectives sometimes are conflicting with each other, it can be cumbersome to use conventional cost function approach to determine the land usage decision. This paper applies a fuzzy multi-objective decision making scheme to the urban redevelopment and spatial load forecasting, which is more naturally and straight forwardly used to handle the spatial load forecasting problem. An example is used to illustrate the proposed methodology.
To realize propensity score matching in PS Matching module of SPSS and interpret the analysis results.The R software and plug-in that could link with the corresponding versions of SPSS and … To realize propensity score matching in PS Matching module of SPSS and interpret the analysis results.The R software and plug-in that could link with the corresponding versions of SPSS and propensity score matching package were installed. A PS matching module was added in the SPSS interface, and its use was demonstrated with test data.Score estimation and nearest neighbor matching was achieved with the PS matching module, and the results of qualitative and quantitative statistical description and evaluation were presented in the form of a graph matching.Propensity score matching can be accomplished conveniently using SPSS software.
In this paper, fuzzy set theory which provides a methodology of treating human subjectivity, linguistic meanings, etc. is reviewed and its novel applications to some actual problems are introduced to … In this paper, fuzzy set theory which provides a methodology of treating human subjectivity, linguistic meanings, etc. is reviewed and its novel applications to some actual problems are introduced to show the efficiency of the theory. First, fundamental concept of fuzzy set theory is explained to point out the differences with probability theory, and then follows the descriptions on fuzzy operations, fuzzy relations, fuzzy reasonings, etc. with their mathematical aspects. Next, the application studies on three fields such as fuzzy control, fuzzy decision making and fuzzy mathematical programming which are considered as the most appropriate examples in showing the efficiency of fuzzy set theory are presented. Finally, the future research topics on fuzzy set theory are briefly discussed.
The paper discusses the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process(FAHP) based fuzzy judgement matrix, and brings up some important properties of fuzzy consistent judgement matrix are proofed. Therefore, a weight calculation method … The paper discusses the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process(FAHP) based fuzzy judgement matrix, and brings up some important properties of fuzzy consistent judgement matrix are proofed. Therefore, a weight calculation method of FAHP has been obtained. Finally, the paper also corrects two errors in the lecture which could bring on the mistake of decision making. As a result of these conclusion, the principle of FAHP has been more perfected.
To answer the questions of the existing FCM involving local limit value and bad scalability,the paper puts forward an improved clustering algorithm MFCM(minimum fuzzy C-means) basing on MCDSA(minimum connected donating … To answer the questions of the existing FCM involving local limit value and bad scalability,the paper puts forward an improved clustering algorithm MFCM(minimum fuzzy C-means) basing on MCDSA(minimum connected donating set algorithm).To help CHGDS(complex huge group-decision) using improved MFCM algorithm,the paper defines the preference vector and coherence indexes of the entire group and provides a new theory and method of group decision in CHGDS,it is validated by a test.Finally,the new idea of group coherence decision mechanism basing on attributes weighted is provided.
Major Function Oriented Zoning(MFOZ) is the blueprint for the future developmnt and protection pattern of China's territory, and has been raised to from major function zones planning to major function … Major Function Oriented Zoning(MFOZ) is the blueprint for the future developmnt and protection pattern of China's territory, and has been raised to from major function zones planning to major function zoning strategy and major function zoning institution. From 2004 to2014, the author organized a series of research projects to compose for the country,studied basic theory of regional function and technical process, and proposed that space controlling zones of national and provincial scales can be divided into four types: urbanized zones, foodstuff-security zones, ecological safety zones, cultural and natural heritage zones. On this basis, major function zones of county scale should be transferred to optimized, prioritized,restricted, and prohibited zones. In this paper, a regional function identification index system comprising nine quantitative indicators(including water resources, land resources, ecological importance, ecological fragility, environment capacity, disaster risk, economic development level, population concentration and transport superiority) and one qualitative indicator of strategic choice is developed. Based on the single index evaluation, comprehensive evaluation using regional function suitability evaluation index is conducted, aiming at testing several key parameters including lower limit of protection zones and upper limit of development zones at the provincial level. In addition, a planning-oriented zoning method of major function zones is also discussed, which has brought the first planning in China. According to the caliber, it is forecasted that national spatial development intensity will rise from 3.48% in 2010 to 3.91% in 2020. Furthermore, according to caliber of the provincial integrated planning, the area of optimized, prioritized and restricted zones accounts for 1.48%, 13.60%and 84.92%, respectively, and that of urbanized, foodstuff-security and ecological safety zones accounts for 15.08%, 26.11% and 58.81%, respectively. In combination of analyses of development level, resources and environmental carrying status and quality of the people's livelihood, the main characteristics of were identified. Through verification, draft of national and provincial scales, which is interactively accomplished with MFOZ Technical Process put forward by the author, is mostly above 80% identical with what have been forecasted.
Firstly the paper pointed out the defects of AHP. Then,the paper introduced the concept of fuzzy consistent judgement matrix,and studied the properties of fuzzy consistent judgement matrix and the rationality … Firstly the paper pointed out the defects of AHP. Then,the paper introduced the concept of fuzzy consistent judgement matrix,and studied the properties of fuzzy consistent judgement matrix and the rationality to denote the important comparision of elements by fuzzy consistent judgement matrix,and the relation between the fuzzy consistent judgement matrix denoting the important comparision and the weigtht denoting the level of importance of element. On the basis of the research,the paper gave the principle and procedure of fuzzy analytical hierarchy process.
The key problem of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation both in theory and practice is how to reasonably quantify the weights of different evaluation indexes in the fuzzy system. In this paper … The key problem of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation both in theory and practice is how to reasonably quantify the weights of different evaluation indexes in the fuzzy system. In this paper a new approach is proposed to directly construct the judgment matrix in analytic hierarchy process according to the fuzzy relative membership degree matrix of single evaluation index. On this basis, a new method namely analytic hierarchy process-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE-AHP), which can be used to check and correct the in consistency of judgment matrix by means of accelerated genetic algorithm and to calculate the weight of the elements in the judgment matrix, is established. The application shows that this method is universal, stable and the calculation result is objective.
For multi-criteria decision making problems,in which the information on criteria's weights is incomplete and the criteria values are intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy numbers,a method of multi-criteria decision-making with incomplete certain information … For multi-criteria decision making problems,in which the information on criteria's weights is incomplete and the criteria values are intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy numbers,a method of multi-criteria decision-making with incomplete certain information based on intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy number is proposed.By using the incomplete certain information of criteria weight coefficient,the optimized nonlinear programming based on Hamming distance between integrated intuitionisitc trapezoidal fuzzy number of each alternative and ideal-solution and non-ideal solution is constructed.By solving the nonlinear programming,the optimized criteria weight coefficients are attained.Then,the relative closeness to the ideal solution of alternative is obtained.The ranking of the alternatives set can be obtained by comparing the relative closeness of alternatives.Finally,an example analysis shows the feasibility and effectiveness of the method.
In allusion to incomplete information and strong subjectivity of index weights in present comprehensive decision-making of power transmission network planning,based on the combination of entropy weight with grey correlation analysis … In allusion to incomplete information and strong subjectivity of index weights in present comprehensive decision-making of power transmission network planning,based on the combination of entropy weight with grey correlation analysis a comprehensive decision-making method for transmission network planning is proposed.Firstly,the entropy weight is used to determine objective weights of evaluation indices to remedy the insufficiency of average index weight and experts assigned index weight in original grey correlation;then the optimal scheme is obtained by improved grey correlation analysis.The combination of entropy weight with grey correlation analysis can fully utilize overall information of each index and give full play to the superiority of grey correlation that it is suitable for small sample events with a certain gray level.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by simulation results of IEEE Garver-6 system.
BACKGROUND: At present, the internationally public recognition of childhood trauma questionnaire is the authorized version of Bernstein,American psychologist, in 1998.OBJECTIVE: To set up the scale of Chinese version of childhood … BACKGROUND: At present, the internationally public recognition of childhood trauma questionnaire is the authorized version of Bernstein,American psychologist, in 1998.OBJECTIVE: To set up the scale of Chinese version of childhood trauma questionnaire with 28 items and analyze its reliability and validity.DESIGN: Community investigation was designed.SETTING: Mental Health Institute, Xiangya Second Hospital, Central South University.PARTICIPANTS: Totally 441 students from 8 classes were randomized from a countryside middle school of a city in Henan in October 2004.METHODS: A total of 441 students were measured with childhood trauma questionnaire and 93 of them were re-measured 2 months later. Childhood trauma questionnaire included 28 items and divided into 5 subscales,named emotional abuse, physical abuse, sexual abuse, emotional neglect and physical neglect. Five grades were adopted in each item, named 1 score: never; 2 scores: occasionally; 3 scores: sometimes; 4 scores: often;and 5 scores: always. Every subscale was varied from 5 to 25 scores, and the total results were in the range from 25 to 125 scores. It was to analyze the internal identical property, reliability of re-measuring, average correlation coefficient among items and correlation coefficient between total score and every subscale. And the analysis was carried on validation factors. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Homogeneity reliability, re-measuring reliability and validity, absolute fit index, relative fit index and parsimony index of childhood trauma questionnaire were involved.RESULTS: Totally 441 pieces of questionnaire were distributed on the spot and 435 pieces of questionnaire with integral and regular answers were collected. Totally 93 pieces of questionnaire were delivered for the second evaluation 2 months later and 93 pieces with regular answers were collected. All of those were used for the evaluation of re-measuring reliability of such measuring table. ① Cronbach α coefficient was 0.64 in Chinese version of childhood trauma questionnaire of and re-measuring reliability was 0.75. Cronbach αcoefficient of every subscale was varied from 0. 16 to 0.65 and re-measuring reliability was in the range from 0.27 to 0.73. The correlation coefficient among items was varied from -0.20 to 0. 44; ②The correlation coefficient between total score and every subscale was varied from 0. 36 to 0.68 and the correlation coefficient among subscales was from-0.01 to 0.39; ③ Indexes of validation factor analysis:The load coefficient of physical neglect was varied from 0.09 to 0. 64 and that in 2 items was less than 0.20. Multiple correlation coefficient was varied from-0. 20 to 0. 82, X2/df was 2.48 and root mean square error of appr0ximation(RMSEA) was 0.06. Added indexes: IFI (0. 76), CFI (0.75) and TLI (0.72) .Parsimony index: PNFI (0.58) and PCFI (0. 67).CONCLUSION: Chinese version of childhood trauma questionnaire provides better reliability and validity. According to validation analysis, except physical neglect, every index tallies with psychometric standards. The results of analysis on normative pathways are satisfactory, which explains that the subscales of such measuring model provide good matching property and conception validity.
This paper proposes an Analytic Hierarchical Process (AHP) theory based method to determine the weight of the decision-making influence factors, considering their relative significance and generating an overall ranking for … This paper proposes an Analytic Hierarchical Process (AHP) theory based method to determine the weight of the decision-making influence factors, considering their relative significance and generating an overall ranking for each road section. A case study on the highway network maintenance priority was conducted to illustrate the proposed procedure. A total of five pavement maintenance decision-making related factors were considered in the study, including pavement performance, pavement structure strength, traffic loads, pavement age and road grade. The weightings of the five factors were quantified through AHP method. Then, the comprehensive ranking index value Ui was determined, which indicated the maintenance priority of a road section in network level decision-making. From the aspect of maintenance cost, the sensitivity analysis results were in accordance with the weightings of different maintenance decision-making factors. The pavement maintenance cost was significantly sensitive to the change of pavement performance. The case study clearly demonstrated the applicability and rationality of the AHP theory based decision-making method and it can be used as a guideline for pavement maintenance agencies.
The personalized service level is important for improving the service quality of library, therefore it is necessary to evaluate it based on effective method, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy is applied … The personalized service level is important for improving the service quality of library, therefore it is necessary to evaluate it based on effective method, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy is applied in it. Firstly, the necessity of personalized service library is discussed. Secondly, main affecting factors of personalized service of library information management are analyzed, and the evaluation index system is constructed. Thirdly, basic theory of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is studied, and the analysis procedure is designed. Finally, six libraries are used as example to carried out evaluation analysis, and results show that the fuzzy analytic hierarchy is an effective method of evaluating the personalized service level of library..
Since 1978, China has adopted a series of economic reforms leading to rapid economic growth and poverty reduction. National Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at about 9 percent per annum … Since 1978, China has adopted a series of economic reforms leading to rapid economic growth and poverty reduction. National Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at about 9 percent per annum from 1978 to 2002, while per capita income increased by 8 percent per annum. The post-reform period was also characterized by an unprecedented decline in poverty. However, income inequality has worsened between coastal and interior provinces as well as between rural and urban areas. A number of factors contributed to this widening disparity in regional development in China, including differences in natural resources endowments, and infrastructure and human capital development... The objective of this study is to assess the impact of public infrastructure on growth and poverty reduction in China, paying a particular attention to the contribution of ...The most significant finding of this study is that low quality (mostly rural) roads have benefit/cost ratios for national GDP that are about four times larger than the benefit/cost ratios for high quality Even in terms of urban GDP, the benefit/cost ratios for low quality roads are much greater than those for high quality roads. from Authors' Abstract
Urban agglomeration has been the inevitable result of China's rapid industrialization and urbanization over the last 30 years. Since the early 2000 s,urban agglomeration has become the new regional unit … Urban agglomeration has been the inevitable result of China's rapid industrialization and urbanization over the last 30 years. Since the early 2000 s,urban agglomeration has become the new regional unit participating in international competition and the division of labor. China has declared urban agglomeration the main spatial component of new types of urbanization over the next decade as clarified at the first Central Urbanization Working Conference and in the National New-type Urbanization Plan(2014?2020). However,research on urban agglomeration remains weak and needs to be strengthened. From 1934 to2013,only 19 papers published in Acta Geographica Sinica contained the theme of urban agglomeration(0.55% of the total number of articles published) and the first paper on urban agglomeration appeared less than 10 years ago. Despite a small number of divergent studies,this work has contributed to and guided the formation of the overall pattern of urban agglomeration in China. For example,spatial analyses have promoted the formation of the fundamental framework of China' s urban agglomeration spatial structure and guided the National New-type Urbanization Plan; spatial identification standards and technical processes have played an important role in identifying the scope and extent of urban agglomeration;serial studies have facilitated pragmatic research; and problems with the formation and development of urban agglomeration have provided a warning for future choices and Chinese development. Future research into urban agglomeration in China should(1) review and examine new problems in China's urban agglomeration options and cultivation;(2) critically consider urban agglomeration when promoting the formation of the 5+9+6 spatial pattern;(3)rely on urban agglomeration to construct new urbanization patterns such as 'stringing the agglomerations with the axis,supporting the axis with the agglomerations'; and(4) deepen national awareness about resources,environment effects and environmental carrying capacity in high density urban agglomerations,management and government coordination innovation,the construction of public finance and fiscal reserve mechanisms,the technical regulation of urban agglomeration planning,and standards for identifying the scope and extent of urban agglomeration.
Carbon emission allowance price forecasting is a significant issue for policy makers and investors with the world transitioning to green energy and devoting enormous efforts to be more sustainable. This … Carbon emission allowance price forecasting is a significant issue for policy makers and investors with the world transitioning to green energy and devoting enormous efforts to be more sustainable. This study explores usefulness of the nonlinear autoregressive neural network for this forecasting problem in a dataset of daily closing prices of carbon emission allowances traded in China Guangdong Carbon Emission Exchange during 19 December 2013–20 August 2021. Through examining various model settings across the algorithm, delay, hidden neuron, and data splitting ratio, the model leading to generally accurate and stable performance is reached. Usefulness of the machine learning technique for the price forecasting problem of the carbon emission allowance price is illustrated. Results here might be used on a standalone basis as technical forecasts or combined with fundamental forecasts to form perspectives of price trends and perform policy analysis, which could better assist different stakeholders in understanding energy cost and planning for green transition.
Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley was founded in many sites in Guangzhou city,Guangdong Province on Hibiscus trees on December 16,2008. Based on the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction Modeling System (GARP),the potential … Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley was founded in many sites in Guangzhou city,Guangdong Province on Hibiscus trees on December 16,2008. Based on the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction Modeling System (GARP),the potential distribution of P. solenopsis in China was predicted. The result indicated that it could occur in most area of 17 provinces including Hainan,Guangdong,Guangxi,Fujian,Taiwan,Zhejiang,Jiangxi,Hunan,Guizhou,Yunnan,Chongqing,Hubei,Anhui,Shanghai,Jiangsu,Shandong and Henan. And it could also occur in part of the following 11 regions including Xinjiang,Sichuan,Gansu,Ningxia,Shaanxi,Shanxi,Hebei,Beijing,Tianjin,Liaoning and Inner Mongolia. According to the international pest risk analysis method,P. solenopsis is a high risk invasive species to China with risk value 0.886.
With the rapid development of the tourism industry, scientific evaluation of tourism resources is crucial to realize sustainable development. Especially how to quantify resource advantages in international tourism cities has … With the rapid development of the tourism industry, scientific evaluation of tourism resources is crucial to realize sustainable development. Especially how to quantify resource advantages in international tourism cities has become an important basis for tourism planning and policy making. However, the limitations of traditional evaluation methods in the allocation of indicator weights and nonlinear data processing make it difficult to meet the development needs of international tourism cities. Therefore, this study takes Guilin, an international tourist city, as the research object and proposes a hybrid framework integrating fuzzy neural network (FNN) and analytic hierarchy process-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (AHP-FCE). Based on 800 questionnaire data covering tourists, practitioners, and local residents, the study constructed a multilevel evaluation system (containing 12 specific indexes in the three dimensions of nature, service, and culture) using the Delphi method of expert interviews. It is found that AHP-FCE can effectively analyze the hierarchical relationship of evaluation indexes, but it is easily affected by the subjective judgment of experts. In contrast, FNN can effectively improve evaluation accuracy through the adaptive learning mechanism, and it especially shows significant advantages in dealing with tourists’ perception data. The empirical analysis shows that Guilin has obvious room for improvement in “environmental friendliness” and “cultural communication effectiveness”. The integration framework proposed in this study aims to enhance the scientific validity and accuracy of the assessment results, and provides reference and inspiration for the sustainable development of Guilin international tourism destination.
Songnian Hu , Yue Qian , Yong Liao +2 more | International Conference on Frontiers of Traffic and Transportation Engineering (FTTE 2022)
Kehu Yang , Huiqiang Wu , Yuchen Zhang | International Conference on Frontiers of Traffic and Transportation Engineering (FTTE 2022)
Qian Liu , Ming Zhang | International Conference on Frontiers of Traffic and Transportation Engineering (FTTE 2022)
Sau khi bài báo được xuất bản trên Tạp chí Kinh tế và Phát triển (Số 316, tháng 10 năm 2023, trang 65-75, DOI: 10.33301/JED.VI.838), các tác giả đã phát … Sau khi bài báo được xuất bản trên Tạp chí Kinh tế và Phát triển (Số 316, tháng 10 năm 2023, trang 65-75, DOI: 10.33301/JED.VI.838), các tác giả đã phát hiện có thiếu sót ở mục Lời thừa nhận/cảm ơn (trang 73) trong bài báo gốc. Các tác giả xin đính chính nội dung này như sau: “Nghiên cứu này được tài trợ bởi Quỹ Phát triển khoa học và công nghệ Quốc gia (NAFOSTED) trong đề tài mã số 502.02-2020.342”.
ABSTRACT The intensity of seismic motion varies considerably with changes in direction, which is commonly known as the directionality of ground motion (GM). Different seismic design codes have adopted various … ABSTRACT The intensity of seismic motion varies considerably with changes in direction, which is commonly known as the directionality of ground motion (GM). Different seismic design codes have adopted various methods for combining the intensity of horizontal GMs. These methods typically use the median spectral ordinate over all non‐redundant orientations, referred to as RotD50, and the maximum spectral ordinate over all non‐redundant orientations, referred to as RotD100. More recently, an intensity measure called MaxRotD50 has also been proposed and considered, which is calculated as the 50th percentile of the maximum spectral ordinates from two orthogonal horizontal directions for all non‐redundant rotation angles. This measure, which always lies between RotD50 and RotD100, offers several advantages over other intensity measures. In contrast to the approach in ASCE 7 (2010, 2022), which uses RotD100 for the design of all structures, this study proposes to use RotD100 only for the design of axisymmetric structures, that is, structures with vertical cylindrical symmetry and similar properties in terms of mass, lateral stiffness and strength. It is also proposed to use MaxRotD50 for the design of structures where the probability of exceeding the intensity of GM in at least one of the two horizontal principal components is high. Likewise, this study complements and compares the RotD100/RotD50 and MaxRotD50/RotD50 ratios, which can be used as a multiplicative factor with the RotD50 predictions to predict the RotD100 or MaxRotD50 of the GM intensity. A database of 3853 seismic acceleration records from 283 events in the South American subduction region is used for this purpose. The influence of GM parameters such as moment magnitude, significant duration, rupture distance, and mean soil period, was evaluated. The results were compared with those of previous studies for different regions of the world. It was found that the RotD100/RotD50 ratios in South America are like those in other subduction regions such as Taiwan and Japan and that the Max RotD50/RotD50 ratios are comparable to other shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions. Finally, equations are also proposed to estimate ratios depending on the different parameters of the evaluated GM to account for the found influence on the ratios.
A competing risks model in lifetime data analysis is used when the event of interest may occure from multiple distinct and mutually exclusive causes. In this paper, we model the … A competing risks model in lifetime data analysis is used when the event of interest may occure from multiple distinct and mutually exclusive causes. In this paper, we model the lifetime of a phenomenon caused by a particular cause using the power Lindley distribution under Type-II Censoring Scheme. The procedure to obtain the Bayesian prediction of failure time of a censored unit and probability of failure due to a particular case is also given. Extensive simulation is also performed for portraying the efficiency of the procedure in model parameter estimation. For illustration purpose, a real data set is analyzed.. KEYWORDS :Power lindley distribution, Competing risks model, Bayesian estimation, Bayesian prediction.
Sau khi bài báo được xuất bản (trên Tạp chí Kinh tế và Phát triển, Số 316, tháng 10 năm 2023, trang 65-75, DOI: 10.33301/JED.VI.838), các tác giả đã phát … Sau khi bài báo được xuất bản (trên Tạp chí Kinh tế và Phát triển, Số 316, tháng 10 năm 2023, trang 65-75, DOI: 10.33301/JED.VI.838), các tác giả đã phát hiện có thiếu sót, cụ thể như sau: Ở mục Lời thừa nhận/cảm ơn (Trang 73) đã ghi trong bài báo: "Bài báo được tài trợ bởi Quỹ Phát triển Khoa học và Công nghệ quốc gia (NAFOSTED)". Các tác giả xin đính lại như sau: “Nghiên cứu này được tài trợ bởi Quỹ Phát triển khoa học và công nghệ Quốc gia (NAFOSTED) trong đề tài mã số 502.02-2020.342”. Nhóm tác giả xin lỗi về thiếu sót và công bố bản đính chính để đảm bảo sự minh bạch trong công bố khoa học. Bản đính chính này không làm thay đổi các kết quả, kết luận và độ tin cậy của nghiên cứu đã công bố trong bài báo gốc.
现代化都市圈建设是防范区域风险、推动空间高质量发展的重要支撑。本文以郑州都市圈作为研究对象,构建了基础设施韧性评价指标体系,通过熵值法确定指标权重,并采用多指标综合指数法计算了郑州都市圈2017—2022 年的城市基础设施韧性指数;通过对比分析,评估了郑州都市圈城市基础设施各子系统韧性水平并探讨其原因,进而提出优化建议。研究结果表明:交通运输系统韧性占据比重最高,对整体基础设施韧性影响显著。在均衡发展期,多数城市在提升系统稳定性和应对冲击能力方面取得了一定进展,但部分系统仍需进一步关注和改进。在冲击抵御期,尽管受到新冠疫情的影响,郑州都市圈的城市基础设施建设并没有停滞,洛阳市、漯河市和开封市甚至还实现了微弱的增长。在恢复适应期,郑州都市圈城市基础设施各子系统韧性水平整体呈上升趋势。 现代化都市圈建设是防范区域风险、推动空间高质量发展的重要支撑。本文以郑州都市圈作为研究对象,构建了基础设施韧性评价指标体系,通过熵值法确定指标权重,并采用多指标综合指数法计算了郑州都市圈2017—2022 年的城市基础设施韧性指数;通过对比分析,评估了郑州都市圈城市基础设施各子系统韧性水平并探讨其原因,进而提出优化建议。研究结果表明:交通运输系统韧性占据比重最高,对整体基础设施韧性影响显著。在均衡发展期,多数城市在提升系统稳定性和应对冲击能力方面取得了一定进展,但部分系统仍需进一步关注和改进。在冲击抵御期,尽管受到新冠疫情的影响,郑州都市圈的城市基础设施建设并没有停滞,洛阳市、漯河市和开封市甚至还实现了微弱的增长。在恢复适应期,郑州都市圈城市基础设施各子系统韧性水平整体呈上升趋势。
Traditional project evaluation models were focusing on individual project impact factors and there is a lack of systematic research on comprehensive project evaluation during the pre-investment period, which include construction … Traditional project evaluation models were focusing on individual project impact factors and there is a lack of systematic research on comprehensive project evaluation during the pre-investment period, which include construction assessment and economic evaluation. In light of the complex construction environment and high investment cost of offshore wind power projects, a key metric evaluation system for offshore wind power projects during the pre-investment period was put forward based on the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Two specific cases in China were evaluated with the assessment model. The results showed that Case 1 in the East China Sea was built in a less favourable environment than Case 2 in the South China Sea, but its electricity price is higher. The system can assist the decision-making procedure by systematic evaluation and comparison of investment opportunities. The system provides technical support for development planning, policy making, and investment management in the offshore renewable energy field.
The industrial goods and services sector is crucial for the advancement of the Vietnamese economy in terms of its substantial economic contribution and positive impact on employment. Performance evaluation has … The industrial goods and services sector is crucial for the advancement of the Vietnamese economy in terms of its substantial economic contribution and positive impact on employment. Performance evaluation has become critical in this industry, which has constantly developed and had an intensive rivalry. This paper aims to analyze the performance of industrial goods and services firms during and after COVID-19 using an objective integrated multi-criteria decision-making technique. This study suggests a three-phase model. Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC) eliminates human judgment errors, increases accuracy, and maintains objectivity in the evaluation variable weighting phase. Then, Evaluation based on Distance from Average Solution (EDAS) and Technique of Order Preference Similarity to the Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) are used as effective cross-validation techniques to evaluate and rank forty-five Vietnam Stock Exchanges-listed firms for each year from 2020 to 2022. The reliability of the CRITIC-based weights is verified by the Statistical Variance Procedure. The research results reveal that the debt term structure is the most vital among the fifteen financial research indicators reflecting a business’s solvency, profitability, growth, operating efficiency, and capital structure. Additionally, the research findings indicate discrepancies in the rankings produced by EDAS and TOPSIS. However, the disparities are not grave, and the top and bottom positions, in particular, remain consistent between the two approaches. PDN was the best firm during COVID-19 and was succeeded by CIA after the pandemic. Pursuing digital transformation, sustainable development, and keeping inventory turnover at high levels are common characteristics of successful businesses in this industry. For the first time, the article provides a performance analysis of Vietnamese industrial goods and services firms. It is a significant reference for domestic and international investors in portfolio selection, financial institutions in loan approval, managers and policymakers in planning and policy development, and researchers conducting investigations within this domain.
Driven by the global “double carbon” goal, the volatility of renewable energy poses a challenge to the stability of power systems. Traditional methods have difficulty dealing with high-dimensional nonlinear data, … Driven by the global “double carbon” goal, the volatility of renewable energy poses a challenge to the stability of power systems. Traditional methods have difficulty dealing with high-dimensional nonlinear data, and the single deep learning model has the limitations of spatiotemporal feature decoupling and being a “black box”. Aiming at the problem of insufficient accuracy and interpretability of power load forecasting in a renewable energy grid connected scenario, this study proposes an interpretable spatiotemporal feature fusion model based on an attention mechanism. Through CNN layered extraction of multi-dimensional space–time features such as meteorology and electricity price, BiLSTM bi-directional modeling time series rely on capturing the evolution rules of load series before and after, and the improved self-attention mechanism dynamically focuses on key features. Combined with the SHAP quantitative feature contribution and feature deletion experiment, a complete chain of “feature extraction time series modeling weight allocation interpretation and verification” is constructed. The experimental results show that the determination coefficient R2 of the model on the Australian electricity market data set reaches 0.9935, which is 84.6% and 59.8% higher than that of the LSTM and GRU models, respectively. The prediction error (RMSE = 105.5079) is 9.7% lower than that of TCN-LSTM model and 52.1% compared to the GNN (220.6049). Cross scenario validation shows that the generalization performance is excellent (R2 ≥ 0.9849). The interpretability analysis reveals that electricity price (average absolute value of SHAP 716.7761) is the core influencing factor, and its lack leads to a 0.76% decline in R2. The research breaks through the limitation of time–space decoupling and the unexplainable bottleneck of traditional models, provides a transparent basis for power dispatching, and has an important reference value for the construction of new power systems.
Bài báo này nhằm kiểm tra tác động của mạng xã hội (MXH) và trải nghiệm khách hàng tới sự hài lòng, ý định quay trở lại và hành vi … Bài báo này nhằm kiểm tra tác động của mạng xã hội (MXH) và trải nghiệm khách hàng tới sự hài lòng, ý định quay trở lại và hành vi truyền miệng của khách du lịch nội địa về homestay tại Việt Nam. Kết quả xử lý dữ liệu bằng SmartPLS 4.0 với 274 phiếu khảo sát đã xác nhận MXH tác động thuận chiều tới trải nghiệm và sự hài lòng của khách du lịch; trải nghiệm khách hàng tác động tích cực tới sự hài lòng và hành vi truyền miệng nhưng không tác động trực tiếp tới ý định quay trở lại homestay của du khách. Mặt khác, nghiên cứu cũng xác nhận vai trò tác động trực tiếp và trung gian của sự hài lòng trong tiến trình dẫn đến hành vi của khách du lịch nội địa với homestay. Các kết quả của nghiên cứu này là cơ sở để đề xuất một số hàm ý với các nhà quản trị homestay trong việc tăng cường hành vi tích cực của khách du lịch trong thời gian tới.
Transportation infrastructure serves a pivotal role in driving regional development. This study proposes a decision-making framework for rural road network planning within the context of China’s common prosperity initiative. An … Transportation infrastructure serves a pivotal role in driving regional development. This study proposes a decision-making framework for rural road network planning within the context of China’s common prosperity initiative. An integrated model combining Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is developed, where DEA is employed to identify technically efficient planning alternatives and AHP is used to rank these alternatives based on social and environmental benefits. Applying the model to the case of Yueqing City, Zhejiang Province, the findings reveal that common prosperity-oriented schemes, particularly the Scheme, which emphasizes full industrial coverage and balanced equity, achieve a superior balance among construction costs, industrial coverage, regional equity, and carbon emissions. Theoretically, this research advances transportation planning by incorporating equity-focused metrics, such as the Gini coefficient, into efficiency analyses, thus promoting a socially sustainable approach to infrastructure development. Practically, the proposed method offers a systematic and actionable tool for local governments to optimize rural transportation networks in support of common prosperity and balanced regional growth. The resulting framework not only identifies technically efficient and equitable layouts but also offers planners a transparent tool for balancing cost, social equity, and environmental impact in future rural infrastructure projects.
Abstract The time-varying average wind speed is extracted by using time-varying filtering EMD (TVF-EMD), and the non-stationary characteristics of the measured wind speed in mountainous areas are analyzed. A non-stationary … Abstract The time-varying average wind speed is extracted by using time-varying filtering EMD (TVF-EMD), and the non-stationary characteristics of the measured wind speed in mountainous areas are analyzed. A non-stationary wind speed model is established, and compared with the traditional stationary model. The results show that TVF-EMD is more accurate and reliable in extracting time-varying average wind speed than traditional wavelet transform. The stationary model overestimates the turbulent characteristics of wind, and the turbulence intensity and gust factor are higher than those of the non-stationary model. In the non-stationary model, the turbulent energy of fluctuating wind is reduced because the time-varying trend term is eliminated. In the whole frequency band, the power spectral density is lower than that of the steady-state model. Kaimal PSD with along-wind and Von Karman PSD with cross-wind are suitable for non-stationary wind fields in mountainous areas.
Civil Engineering is the oldest branch of engineering which was essential in the development of any civilization in the human history and eventually led to the development of other branches … Civil Engineering is the oldest branch of engineering which was essential in the development of any civilization in the human history and eventually led to the development of other branches of engineering with the progress of any civilization in the pages of history. The same goes for the current times, but technological developments and implementation are usually seen at a slower rate in this branch of engineering compared to current existing branches of engineering. Over the recent decade, AI & IoT have developed at a very fast pace. Their applications and effect could be noticed in the field of civil engineering as well, which will be covered in this chapter. Then, some important new developments in this area because of AI and IoT will be discussed in order to understand the evolution and future developments of the mentioned field. Then, graphical analyses based on the available data will be performed to support the study and in understanding the future prospects.
Abstract The performance of magnetorheological fluids is temperature-dependent, which means that the force exerted by the magnetorheological damper also varies with temperature changes. Additionally, during operation, the damper transforms mechanical … Abstract The performance of magnetorheological fluids is temperature-dependent, which means that the force exerted by the magnetorheological damper also varies with temperature changes. Additionally, during operation, the damper transforms mechanical vibrational energy into self-generated heat, leading to significant temperature fluctuations. These fluctuations can result in model mismatches and degrade control performance. This paper proposes a parameterized Exponential linear mixed analytic (ELMA) model for the magnetorheological damper, which not only accurately captures the damping force characteristics of the damper but also offers high interpretability. To achieve precise control, a temperature compensation ELMA model is introduced, which includes both forward and inverse models for calculating the required current based on the demand force. Compared to the uncorrected model, the accuracy of current tracking improves by 3.98%, and the accuracy of force tracking improves by 7.75%. Furthermore, the Temperature Compensation Inverse Model is coupled with the Sky-hook and Mixed SH-ADD control algorithms, utilizing joint simulations in CarSim and Simulink. With temperature compensation, the Sky-hook control algorithm reduces acceleration variance by 11.97% and peak pitch rate by 35.82% on challenging roads, while the Mixed SH-ADD algorithm achieves 10.77% and 41.78% reductions, respectively.
In this study, a hybrid prediction model based on the fusion of ARIMA and BP neural network is proposed to accurately predict the carbon emissions during the construction phase. The … In this study, a hybrid prediction model based on the fusion of ARIMA and BP neural network is proposed to accurately predict the carbon emissions during the construction phase. The model adopts a decomposition-integration strategy, extracting the linear features in the time series by ARIMA model and capturing the nonlinear patterns of the residuals by BP neural network. The empirical analysis is based on the 12-month carbon emission data of a construction project, and the results show that the hybrid model has a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.0115 on the test set, and 92.18% of the predictions are within 1% of the relative error, which is significantly better than the single prediction model.
In complex urban systems, heritage districts must adapt beyond their original functions, requiring innovative reuse strategies to meet urban development demands. This study integrates socio-cultural and qualitative factors to enhance … In complex urban systems, heritage districts must adapt beyond their original functions, requiring innovative reuse strategies to meet urban development demands. This study integrates socio-cultural and qualitative factors to enhance adaptive reuse predictions while fostering inclusive, community-driven renewal. Using a GA-BP neural network model, stakeholder mapping, and focus group interviews, the findings highlight two key aspects: (1) cultural significance, per capita consumption, and functional type serve as critical indicators for sustainable adaptive reuse, and (2) participatory governance and transparent decision-making are essential for effective implementation, with professional mediators and targeted support aiding conflict resolution. The governance transformation of Enning Road exemplifies a multi-network approach that integrates government leadership, enterprise-driven operations, multi-stakeholder participation, and benefit-sharing mechanisms. These insights contribute to the sustainable revitalization of heritage districts, offering a replicable model for balancing heritage preservation with urban development.
Abstract Escalators are common in hospitals that are highly trafficked public places. As an important part of equipment prognostics and health management (PHM), condition assessment plays an integral role. However, … Abstract Escalators are common in hospitals that are highly trafficked public places. As an important part of equipment prognostics and health management (PHM), condition assessment plays an integral role. However, escalator condition assessment suffers from limited high-quality labeled data and unbalanced data categories. It creates challenges and barriers to escalator condition assessment. To this end, an auxiliary classifier-guided diffusion probabilistic model is proposed for escalator data augmentation and condition assessment. Firstly, real data is used to pre-train the auxiliary classifier. After the diffusion model forward process for noise addition, the noise data connected with category labels is fed into the symmetric network for noise prediction. Secondly, the diffusion model undergoes a reverse process for denoising. Among them, the samples generated at each step of the reverse denoising process are fed into the auxiliary classifier for screening, and the eligible samples are adopted to fine-tune the auxiliary classifier to effectively improve its generalization performance. The validity and feasibility of the proposed methodology are verified by the escalator’ operation data from different conditions. The novelty and necessity of the proposed method are demonstrated through multiple comparative experiments.
Urban fire incidents pose significant risks to public safety and infrastructure, necessitating precise spatiotemporal prediction to enhance fire prevention and emergency response strategies. However, predicting fire occurrences remains a complex … Urban fire incidents pose significant risks to public safety and infrastructure, necessitating precise spatiotemporal prediction to enhance fire prevention and emergency response strategies. However, predicting fire occurrences remains a complex task due to the intricate interplay between spatial and temporal factors, including dynamic environmental conditions, historical dependencies, and inter-regional correlations. Temporal variables, such as past fire incidents and external influences like meteorological conditions, significantly impact fire risk, while spatial attributes, including regional characteristics and cross-regional interactions, further complicate predictive modeling. This study introduces UFSTP, an innovative framework for Urban Fire Spatial–Temporal Prediction that integrates multi-source data for enhanced predictive accuracy. UFSTP employs a neural region state representation to capture both intrinsic and extrinsic temporal dependencies, alongside a spatiotemporal propagation mechanism to model inter-regional correlations. Key environmental and historical features are extracted from real-world datasets to construct a comprehensive fire risk representation, facilitating the precise forecasting of fire occurrence in both time and space. Extensive evaluations on real-world datasets from Anci and Guangyang Districts demonstrate that UFSTP achieves a 16.2% average reduction in Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for time prediction and a 3.3% average improvement in top-1 hit rate for regional prediction over state-of-the-art baselines. The proposed framework offers a robust and interpretable approach to urban fire risk assessment, providing critical insights to optimize fire prevention measures and emergency resource allocation.
Static compensators (or DSTATCOMs) are commonly used in the integration of renewable energy sources (RES) into the grid to provide a variety of functions such as reactive power compensation, harmonic … Static compensators (or DSTATCOMs) are commonly used in the integration of renewable energy sources (RES) into the grid to provide a variety of functions such as reactive power compensation, harmonic elimination, zero voltage regulation (ZVR), power factor correction (PFC), grid current balancing, etc. Considering the recent trends on integration of the RES to the grid, an enhanced control structure is needed. In this paper, a hyperbolic tangent function based adaptive filter (HTFAF) is applied for effective operation of the static compensator. This adaptive filter’s (HTFAF) update rule is based on a cosine function and follows the stochastic gradient descent principle. The HTFAF is used to estimate the peak values of the active and reactive segments of load current. These peak values are used to precisely determine reference grid currents. The control structure for the DSTATCOM is designed to provide harmonics-free, sinusoidal, balanced grid currents under both linear and non-linear, as well as balanced and unbalanced loads. Furthermore, the system has the ability of operate in either PFC or ZVR modes. The proposed control structure is also compared with existing control structure LMF and LMS and found to be superior. The MATLAB/Simulink environment is used for the design of a grid-connected DSTATCOM and its control logic. The performance of the system is also validated using the OPAL-RT real-time simulator.