Economics, Econometrics and Finance Economics and Econometrics

Diverse Scientific and Economic Studies

Description

This cluster of papers covers topics related to dynamic economic modeling, financial analysis, monetary policy, asset pricing, panel data models, market competition, investment contracts, and macroeconomic time series. It explores various aspects of economic evaluation, stock prices, fiscal stabilizations, and the impact of different macroeconomic variables on financial markets.

Keywords

Financial Analysis; Monetary Policy; Asset Pricing; Panel Data Models; Economic Evaluation; Stock Prices; Market Competition; Investment Contracts; Macroeconomic Time Series; Fiscal Stabilizations

Until World War II, the United States was the only legal system to have active judicial review, and it was also the legal system within which a functionalist or pragmatist … Until World War II, the United States was the only legal system to have active judicial review, and it was also the legal system within which a functionalist or pragmatist rather than a formalist approach to law generally was best established in legal education, commentary, and judicial discourse. What is the connection between these two phenomena? One possibility is that judicial review furthers a "statesmanlike" and hence a flexibly pragmatic approach to legal questions. Such a story can plausibly be told about how over the last half century legal systems around the world have gotten more pragmatic in their approach to law generally, as they have adapted to judicial review. A similar story can be told about American legal history - that John Marshall in establishing judicial review also inaugurated the Grand Style that led on to Cardozo and Llewellyn by direct inspiration. But on examination the latter story doesn't hold up. If judicial review led to pragmatic jurisprudence in this country, it was by reaction, not direct inspiration. The legal Progressives, who were skeptics about judicial review, effectively joined into a single "assault on formalism" their critiques both of Langellian private-law conceptualism, and of the aggressive classic-liberal constitutional doctrines of the Lochner era. These two tendencies were only loosely related, as we can see when we analyze the elements that lead us to describe a body of thought as formalist. But the Progressives' successful conflation of them into a single impressive bogeyman helped motivate the establishment of the functionalist orthodoxy that was articulated over the course of the twentieth century by Holmes, Thayer, Gray, Pound, Cardozo, Brandeis, Corbin, Wigmore, Llewellyn, Fuller, Traynor, Posner, and the many other pragmatist legal thinkers who have made up the mainstream of modern American legal thought.
According to most academics and policymakers, transparency in monetary policymaking is good for society. I examine this proposition in a small theoretical model where more transparency makes it easier for … According to most academics and policymakers, transparency in monetary policymaking is good for society. I examine this proposition in a small theoretical model where more transparency makes it easier for price setters to infer the central bank's true policy intentions. This induces the central bank to pay relatively much attention to inflation stabilization. In contrast with popular perceptions and most existing literature, I find that transparency need not always be advantageous. It may actually be a policy distorting straitjacket if the central bank enjoys good initial credibility, and there is need for active monetary stabilization policy.
This paper explores leadership within organizations. Leadership is distinct from authority because following a leader is a voluntary rather than coerced activity of the followers. This paper considers how a … This paper explores leadership within organizations. Leadership is distinct from authority because following a leader is a voluntary rather than coerced activity of the followers. This paper considers how a leader induces rational followers to follow her in situations when the leader has incentives to mislead her followers.
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The literature on mutual fund persistence took a hit with the finding that one-year stock momentum and expense ratios account for most of the persistence in mutual fund performance (Carhart, … The literature on mutual fund persistence took a hit with the finding that one-year stock momentum and expense ratios account for most of the persistence in mutual fund performance (Carhart, 1992; Carhart, 1997). However, since equity mutual funds are grouped into styles (e.g., large value, small growth, mid-cap growth, etc.) and are often confined to trading stocks within their style, one should measure fund performance relative to style when investigating managerial ability. Using CRSP mutual fund data and a methodology similar to Carhart (1997), we find that differences in style-adjusted fund returns persist for up to six years. Neither one-year momentum nor expense ratios explain our results. Our results are also robust to controlling for size, book-to-market equity, load, and total net assets. Since manager tenure is about four years, our results suggest that managerial ability may not be as dead as it seems.
We grouped 108 patients with drop attacks, according to potential mechanisms based on predominant associated medical conditions, as follows: unknown, 69 (64%); cardiac, 13 (12%); cerebrovascular insufficiency, 9 (8%); combined … We grouped 108 patients with drop attacks, according to potential mechanisms based on predominant associated medical conditions, as follows: unknown, 69 (64%); cardiac, 13 (12%); cerebrovascular insufficiency, 9 (8%); combined cardiac and cerebrovascular disease, 8 (7%); seizures, 5 (5%); vestibular, 3 (3%); and psychogenic, 1 (1%). Fifty-four percent of the patients received no treatment, but similar percentages of treated (82%) and untreated (84%) patients were symptom-free at follow-up. The stroke rate in the overall group, approximately 0.5% per year, was not significantly different from that in a normal age- and sex-matched population. The favorable long-term outcome in drop attack patients with unrevealing medical and neurologic workups suggests that treatment is unwarranted for an isolated drop attack.
This paper surveys recent findings about how the financial markets value the knowledge assets of publicly traded firms. The motivation for using market value equation to price knowledge assets is … This paper surveys recent findings about how the financial markets value the knowledge assets of publicly traded firms. The motivation for using market value equation to price knowledge assets is discussed and the theory behind this equation is briefly presented. Then the empirical literature that relates Tobin's q to R&D and patent measures is surveyed and new results based on U.S. data through 1995 are presented. The conclusion is that the market value of the modern manufacturing corporation is strongly related to its knowledge assets, and that patent measures contain information about this value above and beyond that conveyed by the usual R&D measure.
This paper proposes a simple explanation for the frequent appearance of a price puzzle in VARs designed for monetary policy analysis. It suggests that the best method of solving the … This paper proposes a simple explanation for the frequent appearance of a price puzzle in VARs designed for monetary policy analysis. It suggests that the best method of solving the puzzle implies a close connection between theory and empirics rather than the introduction of a commodity price. It proves that the omission of a measure of output gap (or potential output) spuriously produces a price puzzle (and several other incorrect conclusions) in a wide class of commonly used models. This can happen even if the model admits a triangular identification and if the forecasts produced by the misspecified VAR are optimal. When the model is tested on US data, all predictions are supported.
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We construct and estimate a joint model of macroeconomic and yield curve dynamics. A small-scale backward/forward-looking rational expectations model describes the macroeconomy. Bond yields are affine functions of the state … We construct and estimate a joint model of macroeconomic and yield curve dynamics. A small-scale backward/forward-looking rational expectations model describes the macroeconomy. Bond yields are affine functions of the state variables of the macromodel, and are derived assuming absence of arbitrage opportunities and a flexible price of risk specification. While maintaining the tractability of the affine set-up, our approach provides a way to interpret yield dynamics in terms of macroeconomic fundamentals; time-varying risk premia, in particular, are associated with the fundamental sources of risk in the economy. In an application to German data, the model is able to capture salient features of the term structure of interest rates and its forecasting performance matches that of the best available models based on latent factors. The model has also considerable success in accounting for the empirical failure of the expectations hypothesis.
This paper addresses the issue of the optimal behaviour of the Lender of Last Resort (LOLR) in its microeconomic role regarding individual financial institutions in distress. It has been argued … This paper addresses the issue of the optimal behaviour of the Lender of Last Resort (LOLR) in its microeconomic role regarding individual financial institutions in distress. It has been argued that the LOLR should not intervene at the microeconomic level and let any defaulting institution face the market discipline, as it will be confronted with the consequences of the risks it has taken. By considering a simple cost benefit analysis we show that this position may lack a sufficient foundation. We establish that, instead, uder reasonable assumptions, the optimal policy has to be conditional on the amount of uninsured debt issued by the defaulting bank. Yet in equilibrium, because the rescue policy is costly, the LOLR will not rescue all the banks that fulfill the uninsured debt requirement condition, but will follow a mixed strategy. This we interpret as the confirmation of the "creative ambiguity" principle, perfectly in line with the central bankers claim that it is efficient for them to have discretion in lending to individual institutions. Alternatively, in other cases, when the social cost of a bank's bankruptcy is too high, it is optimal for the LOLR to bail out the insititution, and this gives support to the "too big to fail" policy.
This paper provides an elementary, non-technical, survey of auction theory, by introducing and describing some of the critical papers in the subject. (The most important of these are reproduced in … This paper provides an elementary, non-technical, survey of auction theory, by introducing and describing some of the critical papers in the subject. (The most important of these are reproduced in a companion book, The Economic Theory of Auctions, Paul Klemperer (ed.), Edward Elgar (pub.), forthcoming.) We begin with the most fundamental concepts, and then introduce the basic analysis of optimal auctions, the revenue equivalence theorem, and marginal revenues. Subsequent sections address risk-aversion, affiliation, asymmetries, entry, collusion, multi-unit auctions, double auctions, royalties, incentive contracts, and other topics. Appendices contain technical details, some simple worked examples, and bibliographies.
The ROSAT point spread functions for the instruments XRT-PSPC, XRT-HRI, (XUV telescope)-WFC in pointing mode as well as the ROSAT survey point spread functions are documented. A series of plots … The ROSAT point spread functions for the instruments XRT-PSPC, XRT-HRI, (XUV telescope)-WFC in pointing mode as well as the ROSAT survey point spread functions are documented. A series of plots exhibits the point spread function models. Commands dedicated and calibration tables related to point spread functions are explained. The internet addresses for the accompanying documentation are given.
People are overconfident. Overconfidence affects financial markets. How depends on who in the market is overconfident and on how information is distributed. This paper examines markets in which price-taking traders, … People are overconfident. Overconfidence affects financial markets. How depends on who in the market is overconfident and on how information is distributed. This paper examines markets in which price-taking traders, a strategic-trading insider, and risk-averse market-makers are overconfident. Overconfidence increases expected trading volume, increases market depth, and decreases the expected utility of overconfident traders. Its effect on volatility and price quality depend on who is overconfident. Overconfident traders can cause markets to underreact to the information of rational traders. Markets also underreact to abstract, statistical, and highly relevant information, while they overreact to salient, anecdotal, and less relevant information.
Banks are highly leveraged institutions, potentially attracted to speculative lending even without deposit insurance. A counterbalancing incentive to lend prudently is the risk of loss of charter value, which depends … Banks are highly leveraged institutions, potentially attracted to speculative lending even without deposit insurance. A counterbalancing incentive to lend prudently is the risk of loss of charter value, which depends on future rents. We show in a dynamic model that current concentration does not reduce speculative lending, and may in fact increase it. In contrast, a policy of temporary increases in market concentration after a bank failure, by promoting a takeover of failed banks by a solvent institution, is very effective. By making speculative lending decisions strategic substitutes, it grants bankers an incentive to remain solvent. Subsequent entry policy fine-tunes the trade-off between the social costs of reduced competition and the gain in stability.
This commentary provides an analysis of past and present dimensions of accounting, auditing and corporate governance that have led to the currently troubling state of affairs in the financial reporting … This commentary provides an analysis of past and present dimensions of accounting, auditing and corporate governance that have led to the currently troubling state of affairs in the financial reporting environment. It offers specific recommendations for addressing the current problems designed to enhance the quality and integrity of the financial reporting environment. It argues that substantive changes in corporate governance are necessary before meaningful improvements can occur in accounting and auditing. Until corporate boards are truly independent of corporate management and are knowledgeable enough to act as effective shareholder advocates, changes in accounting and auditing will be of limited impact. The commentary hopes to stimulate meaningful debate and change related to improving accounting quality, auditing and corporate governance.
The protection of property rights is more and more recognised as a core issue for improvement of the investment climate in Russia. In many post-privatisation Russian enterprises, shareholder rights have … The protection of property rights is more and more recognised as a core issue for improvement of the investment climate in Russia. In many post-privatisation Russian enterprises, shareholder rights have been severely disregarded by self-dealing transactions of the management, share dilution, exclusion of outside shareholders from the Board of Directors and even from shareholder meetings. A more recent development is the abuse of the bankruptcy procedure for the arbitrary redistribution of property. This article reviews the results of the privatisation process and concentrates then on the current structure of ownership and control in the Russian industry and on corporate governance mechanisms in the enterprises. It reviews the legal foundations of corporate governance and gives a detailed view of the state and the institutions of law enforcement. Special attention is paid to the connection between corporate governance and restructuring of enterprises and improved performance.
Linear correlation is only an adequate means of describing the dependence between two random variables when they are jointly elliptically distributed. When the joint distribution of two or more variables … Linear correlation is only an adequate means of describing the dependence between two random variables when they are jointly elliptically distributed. When the joint distribution of two or more variables is not elliptical the linear correlation coefficient becomes just one of many possible ways of summarising the dependence structure between the variables. In this paper we make use of a theorem due to Sklar (1959), which shows that an n-dimensional distribution function may be decomposed into its n marginal distributions, and a copula, which completely describes the dependence between the n variables. We verify that Sklar's theorem may be extended to conditional distributions, and apply it to the modelling of the time-varying joint distribution of the Deutsche mark-U.S. dollar and Yen-U.S. dollar exchange rate returns. We find evidence that the conditional dependence between these exchange rates is time-varying, and that it is asymmetric: dependence is greater during appreciations of the U.S. dollar against the mark and the yen than during depreciations of the U.S. dollar. We also find strong evidence of a structural break in the conditional copula following the introduction of the euro.
This paper derives a methodology for the exact estimation of continuous-time stochastic models based on the characteristic function. The estimation method does not require discretization of the process, and it … This paper derives a methodology for the exact estimation of continuous-time stochastic models based on the characteristic function. The estimation method does not require discretization of the process, and it is easy to apply. The method is essentially generalized method of moments on the complex plane. Hence it shares the optimality and distribution properties of GMM estimators. Moreover, we show that there are instruments that make the estimator asymptotically efficient. We illustrate the method with some applications to relevant estimation problems in continuous-time finance. We estimate a model of stochastic volatility, a jump-diffusion model with constant volatility and a model that nests both the stochastic volatility model and the jump-diffusion model. We find that negative jumps are important to explain skewness and asymmetry in excess kurtosis of the stock return distribution, while stochastic volatility is important to capture the overall level of this kurtosis. Positive jumps are not statistically significant once we allow for stochastic volatility in the model. We also estimate a non-affine model of stochastic volatility and we find that the power of the diffusion coefficient appears to be between one and two, rather than the value of one-half that leads to the standard affine stochatic volatility model. Finally, we offer an explanation for the observation that the estimate of persistence in stochatic volatility increases dramatically as the frequency of the observed data falls based on a multiple factor stochastic volatility model.
This paper is concerned with the consistency of estimators in the analysis of moment structures. An example is given where in spite of identifiability of the parameters the associated estimator … This paper is concerned with the consistency of estimators in the analysis of moment structures. An example is given where in spite of identifiability of the parameters the associated estimator is inconsistent. Consistency is shown to hold under the additional condition of compactness of the parameter space.
We claim that the stock market encourages business creation, innovation, and growth by allowing the recycling of "informed capital." Due to incentive and information problems, new start-ups face high flotation … We claim that the stock market encourages business creation, innovation, and growth by allowing the recycling of "informed capital." Due to incentive and information problems, new start-ups face high flotation costs. Sustaining a tight relationship with a monitor (bank, venture capitalist) allows them to postpone their going public decision until profitability prospects are clearer or incentive problems are less severe. However, monitors' informed capital is in limited supply and the earlier young firms go public the quicker this capital is redirected towards new start-ups. Hence factors that lead to the emergence of a stock market for young firms also encourage business creation. Given the role of new businesses in innovation, our theory suggests a novel linkage between financial development and growth.
This paper studies the evolution of sectoral labor concentration in relation to the level of per capita income. We show that various measures of sectoral concentration follow a U-shaped pattern … This paper studies the evolution of sectoral labor concentration in relation to the level of per capita income. We show that various measures of sectoral concentration follow a U-shaped pattern across a wide variety of data sources: countries first diversify, in the sense that labor is spread more equally across sectors, but there exists, relatively late in the development process, a point at which they start to specialize again. We introduce a model with endogenous costs of trading internationally that provides an explanation for this new empirical fact. The model highlights a trade-off between the benefits of diversification in the context of high trading costs, and the benefits of specialization in a Ricardian sense.
The relationship between chronic infection, antispirochetal immunity, and inflammation is unknown in Lyme neuroborreliosis. In the nonhuman primate model of Lyme neuroborreliosis, we measured spirochetal density in the nervous system … The relationship between chronic infection, antispirochetal immunity, and inflammation is unknown in Lyme neuroborreliosis. In the nonhuman primate model of Lyme neuroborreliosis, we measured spirochetal density in the nervous system and other tissues by polymerase chain reaction and correlated these values to anti-Borrelia burgdorferi antibody in the serum and cerebrospinal fluid, and to inflammation in tissues. Despite substantial presence of Borrelia burgdorferi, the causative agent of Lyme borreliosis, in the central nervous system, only minor inflammation was present there, though skeletal and cardiac muscle, which contained similar levels of spirochete, were highly inflamed. Anti-Borrelia burgdoferi antibody was present in the cerebrospinal fluid but was not selectively concentrated. All infected animals developed anti-Borrelia burgdorferi antibody in the serum, but increased amplitude of antibody was not predictive of higher levels of infection. These data demonstrate that Lyme neuroborreliosis is a persistent infection, that spirochetal presence is a necessary but not sufficient condition for inflammation, and that antibody measured in serum may not predict the severity of infection.
According to the Rotterdam consensus,1 polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS) is defined by the presence of two of three of the following criteria: oligo-anovulation, hyperandrogenism and polycystic ovaries (≥ 12 follicles … According to the Rotterdam consensus,1 polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS) is defined by the presence of two of three of the following criteria: oligo-anovulation, hyperandrogenism and polycystic ovaries (≥ 12 follicles measuring 2-9 mm in diameter and/or an ovarian volume > 10 mL in at least one ovary). The sonographic criteria were based on a study published in 2003 by Jonard et al.,2 where patients with PCOS were found to have significantly more follicles in the 2-5 mm range than a control group comprised of women with tubal or male factor infertility. The decision to set the cut-off at 12 follicles measuring between 2 and 9 mm resulted from a compromise between specificity (99%) and sensitivity (75%), noting that narrowing the range to between 2 and 5 mm did not improve the diagnostic power. A suggestion was made to repeat the assessment in a subsequent cycle if the ovary was enlarged and its antral follicle count obscured by a dominant follicle (>10 mm) or a corpus luteum.3 There is no consensus on how to classify ovaries with a high follicle count when using oral contraception or other exogenous hormones or when there is evidence of a dominant follicle or corpus luteum in successive cycles. Over the 15 years since the Rotterdam consensus, increasing use of transvaginal assessment and technological improvements in ultrasound resolution have resulted in 20%–30% of regularly cycling, normo-ovulatory women satisfying the Rotterdam criteria for polycystic ovarian morphology4 and even more in a younger demographic.5 The sonographic assessment has, over time, become the dominant indicator of PCOS and is often either overinterpreted or misinterpreted as a de facto diagnostic test, often ignoring the presence of a dominant follicle or corpus luteum. These women may then be inappropriately considered 'polycystic' without having the requisite clinical or biochemical correlates. Post-menarcheal teenagers almost always have at least one ovary with > 12 visible follicles and labelling them as 'polycystic' can lead to unnecessary investigations, inappropriate management and stigmatisation. The same is true for women with regular, ovulatory cycles attending ultrasound for reasons other than fertility assessment, who happen to have 15 visible antral follicles and a dominant follicle or corpus luteum. Being wrongfully labelled 'polycystic' may also adversely affect self-esteem and influence women's choices around their diet and use of contraception. Over the past few years, the sonographic criteria embedded in the Rotterdam Consensus have been rightly challenged. In 2011, Dewailly6 studied 240 consecutive patients with mixed symptoms and recommended an ovary not be considered to have polycystic ovarian morphology until ≥ 19 follicles were noted, whilst Lujan et al.7 in 2013 studying 98 women with NIH classified PCOS and 70 normo-ovulatory volunteers recommended a threshold at ≥ 26 follicles. The difference in recommended follicle numbers is explained by Dewailly excluding clinically normal patients with high follicle numbers from the control group. A meta-analysis performed by the Androgen Excess and Polycystic Ovary Syndrome Society in 20148 found that the median follicle number per ovary (FNPO) in women of reproductive age is between 13 and 16 and strongly advocated increasing the threshold for polycystic ovarian morphology to ≥ 25 follicles. Use of ≥ 25 follicles is also supported by the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynaecology Consensus Group.9, 10 Strictly, use of the term 'polycystic' in most contexts is incorrect. A cyst is defined as a pathological cavity having fluid or gaseous contents and 'polycystic' has the connotation of multiple pathological collections. A tertiary (antral) follicle that becomes visible is a physiological process and the number of them does not necessarily reflect a pathological process. In many cases, it may simply reflect a physiological increase in the number of visible immature follicles. We all have experience of the label 'polycystic' being a source of confusion, anxiety and occasionally resulting in unnecessary interventions. It is a term still poorly understood by many women – and their healthcare providers – with the quality of counselling and information provided to women varying greatly. Alternative terms are now also in use, such as 'multifollicular' when ultrasound criteria are satisfied and 'hyperandrogenic anovulation' when associated syndromic biochemical or clinical features are additionally present. This has resulted in further confusion for women and their doctors, and we strongly recommend avoiding the use of labelling in this setting.
IN antitrust law, the conclusion that tying the sale of a second product to a patented product is automatically illegal has been accepted by courts .forforty years.'Under this theory, tying … IN antitrust law, the conclusion that tying the sale of a second product to a patented product is automatically illegal has been accepted by courts .forforty years.'Under this theory, tying is harmful because it creates a new monopoly wholly outside the patent.Conditioning the sale or lease of one commodity on the sale or lease of another, a practice known as a tying agreement or a tie-in, is generally considered a trade-restraining device.The recent Report of the Attorney General's Committee to Study the Antitrust Laws declares that the purpose of a tying contract is monopolistic exploitation. 2This exploitation is achieved by "artificially extending the market for the 'tied' product beyond the consumer acceptance it would rate if competing independently on its merits and on equal terms." 3 The view that tying contracts allow the wielding of monopolistic leverage is widely accepted."Wielding monopolistic leverage" is an ambiguous phrase.A distinction can usefully be made between leverage as a revenue-maximizing device and leverage as a monopoly-creating device.The first involves the use of existing power.The second requires the addition of new power. 4 In both cases monopoly is tAssociate Professor of Law and Economics, Yale Law School.This Article attempts to explore the relationship between product complementarity and tying sales as contrasted with other explanations which have been offered.A "complementarity" view of tying sharply contrasts with other positions in terms of what is called the "leverage" problem.In particular, two explanations have been formulated by Professor Aaron Director-tying as an evasion of price regulation and tying as a counting device for price discrimination.I have reconstructed these explanations as I understood them from previous discussions with him over a period of years ending in 1956 at the University of Chicago Law School.Professor Director, of course, bears no responsibility for my interpretation; my debt to him is great, however, not only for encouraging my interest in the tie-in problem but more basically for providing both a theory and an application of the "evasion" and the "counting" cases, reproduced here The conclusions contained in this Article derive from comparison of these examples with the "complementarity" example to determine whether or not tie-ins create new monopoly.The relationship between product complements and the use of the tying device was developed jointly with John S. McGee, Associate Professor in the School of Business at the University of Chicago.
The last decade of observational and theoretical developments in stellar and binary evolution provides an opportunity to incorporate major improvements to the predictions from population synthesis models. We compute the … The last decade of observational and theoretical developments in stellar and binary evolution provides an opportunity to incorporate major improvements to the predictions from population synthesis models. We compute the Galactic merger rates for NS–NS, BH–NS, and BH–BH mergers with the StarTrack code. The most important revisions include updated wind mass-loss rates (allowing for stellar-mass black holes up to 80 M☉), a realistic treatment of the common envelope phase (a process that can affect merger rates by 2–3 orders of magnitude), and a qualitatively new neutron star/black hole mass distribution (consistent with the observed "mass gap"). Our findings include the following. (1) The binding energy of the envelope plays a pivotal role in determining whether a binary merges within a Hubble time. (2) Our description of natal kicks from supernovae plays an important role, especially for the formation of BH–BH systems. (3) The masses of BH–BH systems can be substantially increased in the case of low metallicities or weak winds. (4) Certain combinations of parameters underpredict the Galactic NS–NS merger rate and can be ruled out. (5) Models incorporating delayed supernovae do not agree with the observed NS/BH "mass gap," in accordance with our previous work. This is the first in a series of three papers. The second paper will study the merger rates of double compact objects as a function of redshift, star formation rate, and metallicity. In the third paper, we will present the detection rates for gravitational-wave observatories, using up-to-date signal waveforms and sensitivity curves.
We compare evolutionary predictions of double compact object merger rate densities with initial and forthcoming LIGO/Virgo upper limits. We find that: (i) Due to the cosmological reach of advanced detectors, … We compare evolutionary predictions of double compact object merger rate densities with initial and forthcoming LIGO/Virgo upper limits. We find that: (i) Due to the cosmological reach of advanced detectors, current conversion methods of population synthesis predictions into merger rate densities are insufficient. (ii) Our optimistic models are a factor of 18 below the initial LIGO/Virgo upper limits for BH-BH systems, indicating that a modest increase in observational sensitivity (by a factor of 2.5) may bring the first detections or first gravitational wave constraints on binary evolution. (iii) Stellar-origin massive BH-BH mergers should dominate event rates in advanced LIGO/Virgo and can be detected out to redshift z=2 with templates including inspiral, merger, and ringdown. Normal stars (<150 Msun) can produce such mergers with total redshifted mass up to 400 Msun. (iv) High black hole natal kicks can severely limit the formation of massive BH-BH systems (both in isolated binary and in dynamical dense cluster evolution), and thus would eliminate detection of these systems even at full advanced LIGO/Virgo sensitivity. We find that low and high black hole natal kicks are allowed by current observational electromagnetic constraints. (v) The majority of our models yield detections of all types of mergers (NS-NS, BH-NS, BH-BH) with advanced detectors. Numerous massive BH-BH merger detections will indicate small (if any) natal kicks for massive BHs.
How many international agreements should there be, and who should sign them? When policy issues are separable, linking them in a "grand international agreement" facilitates policy cooperation by reallocating slack … How many international agreements should there be, and who should sign them? When policy issues are separable, linking them in a "grand international agreement" facilitates policy cooperation by reallocating slack enforcement power. When policy issues are substitutes, issue linkage facilitates policy cooperation also by increasing the amount of available enforcement power. The contrary happens when issues are complements. Then a better strategy can be to delegate policy issues to different, independent national agencies with the same objectives than governments. Constitutional rules that permit credible delegation to agencies with different objectives than governments further facilitate international cooperation by generating stronger credible threats. Implications for multilateral agreements are discussed.

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