Nicholas G. Davies

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All published works
Action Title Year Authors
+ PDF Chat Estimating epidemiological delay distributions for infectious diseases 2024 Sang Woo Park
Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov
Kelly Charniga
Anne Cori
Nicholas G. Davies
Jonathan Dushoff
Sebastian Funk
Katie Gostic
Bryan T. Grenfell
Natalie M. Linton
+ Improving modelling for epidemic responses: reflections from members of the UK infectious disease modelling community on their experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic 2024 Katharine Sherratt
Anna Carnegie
Adam J. Kucharski
Anne Cori
Carl A. B. Pearson
Christopher I Jarvis
Christopher E. Overton
Dale Weston
Edward M. Hill
Edward Knock
+ Estimating social contact rates for the COVID-19 pandemic using Google mobility and pre-pandemic contact surveys 2023 Em Prestige
Pietro Coletti
Jantien A. Backer
Nicholas G. Davies
W. John Edmunds
Christopher I Jarvis
+ PDF Chat Improving modelling for epidemic responses: reflections from members of the UK infectious disease modelling community on their experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic 2023 Katharine Sherratt
Anna Carnegie
Adam J. Kucharski
Anne Cori
Carl A. B. Pearson
Christopher I Jarvis
Christopher E. Overton
Dale Weston
Edward M. Hill
Edward Knock
+ Simulating respiratory disease transmission within and between classrooms to assess pandemic management strategies at schools 2022 Akira Endo
Mitsuo Uchida
Yang Liu
Katherine E. Atkins
Adam J. Kucharski
Sebastian Funk
Kaja Abbas
Kevin van Zandvoort
Nikos I Bosse
Naomi R. Waterlow
+ PDF Chat Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era 2022 Rosanna C. Barnard
Nicholas G. Davies
James D. Munday
Rachel Lowe
Gwenan M. Knight
Quentin J. Leclerc
Damien C. Tully
David Hodgson
Rachael Pung
Joel Hellewell
+ PDF Chat Using high-resolution contact networks to evaluate SARS-CoV-2 transmission and control in large-scale multi-day events 2022 Rachael Pung
Josh A. Firth
Lewis G. Spurgin
Annie Chang
Jade Kong
Jazzy Wong
Ooi Jo Jin
Deepa Selvaraj
Dominique Z X Yong
Jocelyn H S Lang
+ PDF Chat Unexposed populations and potential COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths in European countries as per data up to 21 November 2021 2022 Lloyd A. C. Chapman
Rosanna C. Barnard
Timothy Russell
Sam Abbott
Kevin van Zandvoort
Nicholas G. Davies
Adam J. Kucharski
+ PDF Chat Projected epidemiological consequences of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant in England, December 2021 to April 2022 2021 Rosanna C. Barnard
Nicholas G. Davies
Carl A. B. Pearson
Mark Jit
W. John Edmunds
+ How immunity from and interaction with seasonal coronaviruses can shape SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology 2021 Naomi R. Waterlow
Edwin van Leeuwen
Nicholas G. Davies
Stefan Flasche
Rosalind M. Eggo
+ Behaviour, booster vaccines and waning immunity: modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era 2021 Rosanna C. Barnard
Nicholas G. Davies
Mark Jit
W. John Edmunds
+ Unexposed populations and potential COVID-19 burden in European countries as of 21st November 2021 2021 Lloyd A. C. Chapman
Rosanna C. Barnard
Timothy Russell
Sam Abbott
Kevin van Zandvoort
Nicholas G. Davies
Adam J. Kucharski
+ Date of introduction and epidemiologic patterns of SARS-CoV-2 in Mogadishu, Somalia: estimates from transmission modelling of 2020 excess mortality data 2021 MihĂĄly Koltai
Abdihamid Warsame
Farah Bashiir
Terri Freemantle
C. L. Williams
Mark Jit
Stefan Flasche
Nicholas G. Davies
Ahmed Aweis
Mohamed Lemine Cheikh Brahim Ahmed
+ How immunity from and interaction with seasonal coronaviruses can shape SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology 2021 Naomi R. Waterlow
Edwin van Leeuwen
Nicholas G. Davies
Stefan Flasche
Rosalind M. Eggo
+ Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in English care homes: a modelling study 2021 Alicia RosellĂł
Rosanna C. Barnard
David R. Smith
Stephanie Evans
Fiona Grimm
Nicholas G. Davies
Sarah R Deeny
Gwenan M. Knight
W. John Edmunds
+ PDF Chat Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England 2021 Nicholas G. Davies
Sam Abbott
Rosanna C. Barnard
Christopher I Jarvis
Adam J. Kucharski
James D. Munday
Carl A. B. Pearson
Timothy Russell
Damien C. Tully
Alex Washburne
+ Quarantine and testing strategies in contact tracing for SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study 2021 Billy J. Quilty
Samuel Clifford
Joel Hellewell
Timothy Russell
Adam J. Kucharski
Stefan Flasche
W. John Edmunds
Katherine E. Atkins
Anna M. Foss
Naomi R. Waterlow
+ PDF Chat Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England 2020 Nicholas G. Davies
Sam Abbott
Rosanna C. Barnard
Christopher Jarvis
Adam J. Kucharski
James D. Munday
Carl A. B. Pearson
Timothy Russell
Damien C. Tully
Alex Washburne
+ Susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Children and Adolescents Compared With Adults 2020 Russell Viner
Oliver Mytton
Chris Bonell
G. J. MelĂ©ndez‐Torres
Joseph Ward
Lee Hudson
Claire S. Waddington
James Thomas
Simon Russell
Fiona van der Klis
+ The potential health and economic value of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination alongside physical distancing in the UK: transmission model-based future scenario analysis and economic evaluation 2020 Frank Sandmann
Nicholas G. Davies
Anna Vassall
W. John Edmunds
Mark Jit
+ The contribution of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections to transmission on the Diamond Princess cruise ship 2020 Jon C. Emery
Timothy Russell
Yang Liu
Joel Hellewell
Carl A. B. Pearson
Katherine E. Atkins
Petra Klepac
Akira Endo
Christopher I Jarvis
Nicholas G. Davies
+ Projecting contact matrices in 177 geographical regions: an update and comparison with empirical data for the COVID-19 era 2020 Kiesha Prem
Kevin van Zandvoort
Petra Klepac
Rosalind M. Eggo
Nicholas G. Davies
Alex R. Cook
Mark Jit
+ PDF Chat Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics 2020 Nicholas G. Davies
Petra Klepac
Yang Liu
Kiesha Prem
Mark Jit
Carl A. B. Pearson
Billy J. Quilty
Adam J. Kucharski
Hamish Gibbs
Samuel Clifford
+ Effectiveness of isolation, testing, contact tracing, and physical distancing on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in different settings: a mathematical modelling study 2020 Adam J. Kucharski
Petra Klepac
Andrew J. K. Conlan
Stephen M. Kissler
Maria Tang
Hannah Fry
Julia R. Gog
W. John Edmunds
Jon C. Emery
Graham F. Medley
+ The effectiveness of social bubbles as part of a Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy, a modelling study 2020 Trystan Leng
Connor White
Joe Hilton
Adam J. Kucharski
Lorenzo Pellis
Helena B. Stage
Nicholas G. Davies
Matt J. Keeling
Stefan Flasche
+ Susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection amongst children and adolescents compared with adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis 2020 Russell Viner
Oliver Mytton
Chris Bonell
G. J. MelĂ©ndez‐Torres
Joseph Ward
Lee Hudson
Claire S. Waddington
James Thomas
Simon Russell
Fiona van der Klis
+ The impact of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on health systems and household resources in Africa and South Asia 2020 Nicholas G. Davies
Sedona Sweeney
Sergio Torres‐Rueda
Fiammetta Bozzani
Nichola Kitson
Edwine Barasa
Simon R. Procter
Matthew Quaife
Rosalind M. Eggo
Anna Vassall
+ Response strategies for COVID-19 epidemics in African settings: a mathematical modelling study 2020 Kevin van Zandvoort
Christopher I Jarvis
Carl A. B. Pearson
Nicholas G. Davies
Timothy Russell
Adam J. Kucharski
Mark Jit
Stefan Flasche
Rosalind M. Eggo
Francesco Checchi
+ The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study 2020 Nicholas G. Davies
Adam J. Kucharski
Rosalind M. Eggo
Amy Gimma
W. John Edmunds
+ Stochastic age-structured model of SARS-nCoV-2 transmission for UK scenario projections. 2020 Nicholas G. Davies
Adam J. Kucharski
Rosalind M. Eggo
Amy Gimma
W. John Edmunds
+ PDF Chat Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics 2020 Nicholas G. Davies
Petra Klepac
Yang Liu
Kiesha Prem
Mark Jit
Rosalind M. Eggo
Common Coauthors
Commonly Cited References
Action Title Year Authors # of times referenced
+ PDF Chat Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics 2020 Nicholas G. Davies
Petra Klepac
Yang Liu
Kiesha Prem
Mark Jit
Carl A. B. Pearson
Billy J. Quilty
Adam J. Kucharski
Hamish Gibbs
Samuel Clifford
13
+ PDF Chat Social Contacts and Mixing Patterns Relevant to the Spread of Infectious Diseases 2008 Joël Mossong
Niel Hens
Mark Jit
Philippe Beutels
Kari Auranen
Rafael Mikolajczyk
Marco Massari
Stefania Salmaso
Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba
Jacco Wallinga
12
+ Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia 2020 Qun Li
Xuhua Guan
Peng Wu
Xiaoye Wang
Lei Zhou
Yeqing Tong
Ruiqi Ren
Kathy Leung
Eric H. Y. Lau
Jessica Y. Wong
9
+ PDF Chat Epidemiology and transmission of COVID-19 in 391 cases and 1286 of their close contacts in Shenzhen, China: a retrospective cohort study 2020 Qifang Bi
Yongsheng Wu
Shujiang Mei
Chenfei Ye
Xuan Zou
Zhen Zhang
Xiaojian Liu
Lan Wei
Shaun Truelove
Tong Zhang
9
+ PDF Chat Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study 2020 Nicholas G. Davies
Adam J. Kucharski
Rosalind M. Eggo
Amy Gimma
W. John Edmunds
Thibaut Jombart
Kathleen O’Reilly
Akira Endo
Joel Hellewell
Emily Nightingale
8
+ PDF Chat Quantifying the impact of physical distance measures on the transmission of COVID-19 in the UK 2020 Christopher I Jarvis
Kevin van Zandvoort
Amy Gimma
Kiesha Prem
Petra Klepac
G. James Rubin
W. John Edmunds
8
+ PDF Chat Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period 2020 Stephen M. Kissler
Christine Tedijanto
Edward Goldstein
Yonatan H. Grad
Marc Lipsitch
7
+ PDF Chat Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts 2020 Joel Hellewell
Sam Abbott
Amy Gimma
Nikos I Bosse
Christopher I Jarvis
Timothy Russell
James D. Munday
Adam J. Kucharski
W. John Edmunds
Sebastian Funk
6
+ PDF Chat Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics 2020 Nicholas G. Davies
Petra Klepac
Yang Liu
Kiesha Prem
Mark Jit
Rosalind M. Eggo
6
+ PDF Chat Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England 2021 Nicholas G. Davies
Sam Abbott
Rosanna C. Barnard
Christopher I Jarvis
Adam J. Kucharski
James D. Munday
Carl A. B. Pearson
Timothy Russell
Damien C. Tully
Alex Washburne
5
+ PDF Chat The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application 2020 Stephen A. Lauer
Kyra H. Grantz
Qifang Bi
Forrest K. Jones
Qulu Zheng
Hannah R. Meredith
Andrew S. Azman
Nicholas G Reich
Justin Lessler
5
+ Susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Children and Adolescents Compared With Adults 2020 Russell Viner
Oliver Mytton
Chris Bonell
G. J. MelĂ©ndez‐Torres
Joseph Ward
Lee Hudson
Claire S. Waddington
James Thomas
Simon Russell
Fiona van der Klis
5
+ PDF Chat Incubation Period and Other Epidemiological Characteristics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Infections with Right Truncation: A Statistical Analysis of Publicly Available Case Data 2020 Natalie M. Linton
T. Kobayashi
Yichi Yang
Katsuma Hayashi
Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov
Sung-mok Jung
Baoyin Yuan
Ryo Kinoshita
Hiroshi Nishiura
5
+ The epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases (COVID-19) in China 2020 Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Emergency Response Epidemiology Team
5
+ PDF Chat Assessing the age specificity of infection fatality rates for COVID-19: systematic review, meta-analysis, and public policy implications 2020 Andrew Levin
William P. Hanage
Nana Owusu‐Boaitey
Kensington Cochran
Seamus P. Walsh
Gideon Meyerowitz‐Katz
5
+ Estimating the time-varying reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 using national and subnational case counts 2020 Sam Abbott
Joel Hellewell
Robin N. Thompson
Katharine Sherratt
Hamish Gibbs
Nikos I Bosse
James D. Munday
Sophie Meakin
Emma L. Doughty
June Young Chun
5
+ PDF Chat Projecting social contact matrices in 152 countries using contact surveys and demographic data 2017 Kiesha Prem
Alex R. Cook
Mark Jit
5
+ The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study 2020 Nicholas G. Davies
Adam J. Kucharski
Rosalind M. Eggo
Amy Gimma
W. John Edmunds
5
+ The timing of COVID-19 transmission 2020 Luca Ferretti
Alice Ledda
Chris Wymant
Lele Zhao
Virginia Ledda
Lucie Abeler‐Dörner
Michelle Kendall
Anel Nurtay
Hao‐Yuan Cheng
Ta-Chou Ng
5
+ Epidemiology and Transmission of COVID-19 in Shenzhen China: Analysis of 391 cases and 1,286 of their close contacts 2020 Qifang Bi
Yongsheng Wu
Shujiang Mei
Chenfei Ye
Xuan Zou
Zhen Zhang
Xiaojian Liu
Lan Wei
Shaun Truelove
Tong Zhang
4
+ PDF Chat Social Contact Structures and Time Use Patterns in the Manicaland Province of Zimbabwe 2017 Alessia Melegaro
Emanuele Del Fava
Piero Poletti
Stefano Merler
Constance Nyamukapa
John R. Williams
Simon Gregson
Piero Manfredi
4
+ PDF Chat Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe 2020 Seth Flaxman
Swapnil Mishra
Axel Gandy
H. Juliette T. Unwin
Thomas A. Mellan
Helen Coupland
Charles Whittaker
Harrison Zhu
Tresnia Berah
Jeffrey W. Eaton
4
+ PDF Chat Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France 2020 Henrik Salje
CĂ©cile Tran Kiem
Noémie Lefrancq
Noémie Courtejoie
Paolo Bosetti
Juliette Paireau
Alessio Andronico
Nathanaël Hozé
Jehanne Richet
Claire-Lise Dubost
4
+ Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), December 2019 to January 2020 2020 Julien Riou
Christian L. Althaus
4
+ Estimating the overdispersion in COVID-19 transmission using outbreak sizes outside China 2020 Akira Endo
Sam Abbott
Adam J. Kucharski
Sebastian Funk
4
+ PDF Chat Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19 2020 Xi He
Eric H. Y. Lau
Peng Wu
Xilong Deng
Jian Wang
Xinxin Hao
Yiu Chung Lau
Jessica Y. Wong
Yujuan Guan
Xinghua Tan
4
+ Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis 2020 Robert Verity
Lucy Okell
Ilaria Dorigatti
Peter Winskill
Charles Whittaker
Natsuko Imai
Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg
Hayley Thompson
Patrick Walker
Han Fu
4
+ PDF Chat Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing 2020 Luca Ferretti
Chris Wymant
Michelle Kendall
Lele Zhao
Anel Nurtay
Lucie Abeler‐Dörner
Michael Parker
David Bonsall
Christophe Fraser
4
+ PDF Chat Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study 2020 Adam J. Kucharski
Timothy Russell
Charlie Diamond
Yang Liu
John Edmunds
Sebastian Funk
Rosalind M. Eggo
Fiona Sun
Mark Jit
James D. Munday
3
+ Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections 2020 Hiroshi Nishiura
Natalie M. Linton
Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov
3
+ PDF Chat Neutralizing antibody levels are highly predictive of immune protection from symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection 2021 David S. Khoury
Deborah Cromer
Arnold Reynaldi
Timothy E. Schlub
Adam K. Wheatley
Jennifer A. Juno
Kanta Subbarao
Stephen J. Kent
James A. Triccas
Miles P. Davenport
3
+ Estimating the time-varying reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 using national and subnational case counts 2020 Sam Abbott
Joel Hellewell
Robin N. Thompson
Katharine Sherratt
Hamish Gibbs
Nikos I Bosse
James D. Munday
Sophie Meakin
Emma L. Doughty
June Young Chun
3
+ PDF Chat Immunological characteristics govern the transition of COVID-19 to endemicity 2021 Jennie S. Lavine
Ottar N. BjĂžrnstad
Rustom Antia
3
+ PDF Chat The role of children in the spread of COVID-19: Using household data from Bnei Brak, Israel, to estimate the relative susceptibility and infectivity of children 2021 Itai Dattner
Yair Goldberg
Guy Katriel
Rami Yaari
Nurit Gal
Yoav Miron
Arnona Ziv
Rivka Sheffer
Yoram Hamo
Amit Huppert
3
+ Association of tiered restrictions and a second lockdown with COVID-19 deaths and hospital admissions in England: a modelling study 2020 Nicholas G. Davies
Rosanna C. Barnard
Christopher I Jarvis
Timothy Russell
Malcolm G. Semple
Mark Jit
W. John Edmunds
3
+ Estimating the reproductive number R0 of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States and eight European countries and implications for vaccination 2021 Ruian Ke
Ethan Romero-Severson
Steven Sanche
Nicolas Hengartner
3
+ PDF Chat How generation intervals shape the relationship between growth rates and reproductive numbers 2006 Jacco Wallinga
Marc Lipsitch
3
+ PDF Chat Efficacy of contact tracing for the containment of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) 2020 Matt J. Keeling
T. DĂ©irdre Hollingsworth
Jonathan M. Read
3
+ The construction of next-generation matrices for compartmental epidemic models 2009 Odo Diekmann
Hans Heesterbeek
Michael C. Roberts
3
+ [Epidemiological characteristics of infection in COVID-19 close contacts in Ningbo city]. 2020 Yi Chen
Aihong Wang
Bo Yi
Keqin Ding
Haibo Wang
Wang Jian-mei
Hongbo Shi
Sijia Wang
Guozhang Xu
3
+ Response strategies for COVID-19 epidemics in African settings: a mathematical modelling study 2020 Kevin van Zandvoort
Christopher I Jarvis
Carl A. B. Pearson
Nicholas G. Davies
Timothy Russell
Adam J. Kucharski
Mark Jit
Stefan Flasche
Rosalind M. Eggo
Francesco Checchi
3
+ PDF Chat Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China 2020 Juanjuan Zhang
Maria Litvinova
Yuxia Liang
Yan Wang
Wei Wang
Shanlu Zhao
Qianhui Wu
Stefano Merler
CĂ©cile Viboud
Alessandro Vespignani
3
+ PDF Chat No evidence of secondary transmission of COVID-19 from children attending school in Ireland, 2020 2020 Laura Heavey
Geraldine Casey
Ciara Kelly
David Kelly
Geraldine McDarby
3
+ Assessing the Age Specificity of Infection Fatality Rates for COVID-19: Systematic Review, Meta-analysis, & Public Policy Implications 2020 Andrew Levin
William P. Hanage
Nana Owusu‐Boaitey
Kensington Cochran
Seamus P. Walsh
Gideon Meyerowitz‐Katz
3
+ PDF Chat Contact Tracing Assessment of COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics in Taiwan and Risk at Different Exposure Periods Before and After Symptom Onset 2020 Hao‐Yuan Cheng
Shu-Wan Jian
Ding‐Ping Liu
Ta-Chou Ng
Wan‐Ting Huang
Hsien-Ho Lin
3
+ A Systematic Review of Social Contact Surveys to Inform Transmission Models of Close-contact Infections 2019 Thang Van Hoang
Pietro Coletti
Alessia Melegaro
Jacco Wallinga
Carlos G. Grijalva
John W. Edmunds
Philippe Beutels
Niel Hens
3
+ PDF Chat The contribution of pre-symptomatic infection to the transmission dynamics of COVID-2019 2020 Yang Liu
Sebastian Funk
Stefan Flasche
3
+ PDF Chat Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Australian educational settings: a prospective cohort study 2020 Kristine Macartney
Helen Quinn
Alexis Pillsbury
Archana Koirala
Lucy Deng
Noni Winkler
Anthea L Katelaris
Matthew O’Sullivan
Craig Dalton
Nicholas Wood
3
+ PDF Chat School closures during the 2009 influenza pandemic: national and local experiences 2014 Simon Cauchemez
Maria D. Van Kerkhove
Brett N. Archer
MartĂ­n S. Cetron
Benjamin J. Cowling
Peter Grove
Darren Hunt
Mira Kojouharova
Predrag Kon
Kumnuan Ungchusak
2
+ PDF Chat Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data 2008 Simon Cauchemez
Alain‐Jacques Valleron
Pierre‐Yves BoĂ«lle
Antoine Flahault
Neil M. Ferguson
2